2012 Farm System Rankings

1) Carbombs
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Jurickson Profar 2) Nolan Arenado 3) Miguel Sano
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Taijuan Walker, 2) Jameson Taillon, 3) Gerritt Cole
2012 Stock Rising: Christian Yelich - Doesn't get much pub but hit 312 with 15 hrs 77 rbis 32 sbs.
2012 Stock Falling: Martin Perez - Still only 21 in AAA but hes a fly ball pitcher headed to a hitters park.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 2 Profar, 5 to 1 Sano, 40 to 1 Sanchez, 100 to 1 Walker

The Carbombs were in the playoffs as recently as 2010, yet boast the league's top farm system - and its not close. How did this happen? Mostly from these three simple trades:

1) Mark Teixeira to the Walnuts for Taillon, Perez, Freeman
2) David Wright to the Monsters for Montero, Sano, Profar
3) Nelson Cruuuuz to the Quahogs for Arenado

Good young hitters are nearly impossible to trade for in the NKFBL and the Carbombs have put together a small army of them through good drafting and trades. With a minor league system rolling 45 deep the Carbombs can sit back and hope guys like Tavaras and Guzman breakout and live up to their potential.

2) Rampage
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Manny Machado, 2) Bubba Starling, 3) Josh Bell
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Dylan Bundy, 2) Jarrod Parker, 3) Noah Syndergard
2012 Stock Rising: Jorge Alfaro - He only walked 5 times in 172 AB’s last yr but hit 300 as an 18 yr old
2012 Stock Falling: Nick Castellanos - The 23% K rate is concerning and he needs to show more power (7 HRs in 2011).
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Machado, 5 to 1 Bundy, 20 to 1 Starling, 1000 to 1 Hechavarria

Ranking team 2 through 5 on this list was close to impossible since it depends largely on what you value. The Bombers/Whales own a top 3 prospect but lack the depth of the Rampage/Pigeons. Ultimately I sided with the depth because even the top 1% prospects carry some risk. The Rampage, as painful as it is to admit, have some very good prospects due to yet another draft full with first round prospect picks.

Dylan Bundy has only pitched 6 innings, but has yet to give up a hit or walk and has K’d 12. He should move quickly and he could end the year as the best pitching prospect in the minors. Most of the Rampage hitters should take a while to develop but Machado could be playing SS or 3B in the majors sometime in 2013. By 2014 the Rampage will be a long long way from the team that kept Polanco, McDonald, KRod and Ibanez this past year.

3) Pigeons
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Javier Baez, 2) Michael Choice, 3) Rymer Liriano
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Casey Kelly, 2) Randall Delgado, 3) Daniel Norris
2012 Stock Rising: Casey Kelly - Small sample but 14 K’s to 0 walks in 2012. Still only 22 and will get to pitch in PETCO.
2012 Stock Falling: Jacob Turner - Shoulder problems and a low K9 (7.13 in 113 IP) have lowered expectations..
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Baez, 5 to 1 Choice, 30 to 1 Liriano, 50 to 1 Cuthbert

Two years ago I ranked NKFBL farm systems and the Pigeons were dead last. In a short time Yole has turned things around for the Pigeons and turned in a very successful draft in March. Baez, Marisnick, Liriano, Rosario and Akins (Stanton comps) are all toolsy high upside hitters that have the potential to turn into strong Pigeon keepers or great trade chips.

Yole/Sully have already put together a solid pitching staff that includes Price, Romero and Beachy. Casey Kelly in the near term and Daniel Norris in the future should be able to join that group. In a loaded Toronto Blue Jays system Norris stands out as a lefty with an easy delivery, four average to plus pitches and great makeup.

4) Whales
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Bryce Harper, 2) Anthony Rendon, 3) Anthony Rizzo
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Tyler Skaggs, 2) Zach Wheeler, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: Garrin Cecchini - Injury shortened 2011 he had a slash of 298/398/500 at Single A Lowell
2012 Stock Falling: Tyler Matzek - Former 1st rd prospect pick had a disastrous 2011 with 96 walks in 97 innings.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 2 Rendon, 5 to 1 Skaggs, 50 to 1 Wheeler, 350 to 1 Sale

Whales owner Eamonn Hartnett showed up at last years prospect draft with a fresh suit and unopened prospect book. Clearly unprepared it’s pretty impressive that he walked away with Skaggs in the 4th and Cecchini in the 5th round. Despite good late picks the Whales farm system is still very top heavy. Harper could make a Griffey like debut at some point this season and Rendon, despite a fractured ankle this week, should have a long productive career.

Once Harper hits the big leagues the Whales farm system will fall back down into the bottom 4. There is a long list of picks that just didn't pan out (Sanchez, Matzek, Antonelli, Dominguez, Oliver - too many to name). The effects of poor drafting and wasted picks are a shallow group of prospects and minimal MLB talent. The Ballers need to to decide on a direction for this team quick or risk drafting in the top 3 for years and years to come.

5) Bombers
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Mike Trout, 2) Ariel Ovando, 3) Guillermo Pimentel
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Shelby Miller, 2) Archie Bradley, 3) AJ Cole
2012 Stock Rising: AJ Cole - Didnt have any problem in his first season: 11 K9, good control and a 2.53 FIP
2012 Stock Falling: Michael Ynoa - Only 20 but he signed in ‘08 but has only pitched 9 innings because of injuries.

Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 2 to 1 Miller, 4 to 1 Bradley, 100 to 1 Cole, 200 to 1 Lee
Unlike many of the successful teams in the NKFBL, the Bombers have avoided negotiating with terrorists like Pearce and the Rampage and held onto their 1st rd prospect picks. Archie Bradley.will look to continue an impressive streak of 1st rounders.

2008 - 1st - Jarrod Parker, Jason Heyward
2009 - 1st - Buster Posey
2010 - 1st - Shelby Miller
2011 - 1st - Zach Lee

Overall the Bombers current system isn't as deep as the previous four with only one impact hitter and four top pitching prospects. I can imagine Uustal couldn't care less about this fact since the Bombers have not only the best team in the league but one of the youngest (12 keepers 28 or under). Be prepared to be depressed by this list:

22 yrs old - Heyward
24 yrs old - JUpton, Kershaw
25 yrs old - Posey, Butler, Felix
27 yrs old - Tulo, BUpton
28 yrs old - Pedroia, Markakis, Ubaldo, Votto

6) Walnuts
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Wil Myers, 2) Xander Bogaerts, 3) Jonathan Singleton
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Taylor Guerreri, 2) Jake Odorizzi, 3) Johnny Hellweg
2012 Stock Rising: Jorge Bonifacio - Emilios brother had an 825 OPS as an 18 yr old, 1031 OPS to start 2012
2012 Stock Falling: Jake Odorizzi - Inconsistent stuff and hr problems (17 in 2011) make his upside Gavin Floyd.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Myers, 8 to 1 Bogaerts, 15 to 1 Singleton, 150 to 1 Hernandez

Similar to the Red Sox farm system the Nuts have alot of interesting names but no marquee prospect. Wil Myers stock took a slight hit in an injury plagued 2011 season and Xander Bogaerts will have to prove that he can hit for power and average. Newly drafted names like Elier Hernandez, Dan Vogelbach and Jairo Beras have tons of buzz but are all big projects that will take north of 4 years. It was easily the teams riskiest draft to date but similar to the lottery you can’t win if you dont play. The Nuts will hope some of the picks turn into future keepers or part of a playoff push deadline deal.

7) Anchormen
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Gary Brown, 2) Mike Olt, 3) Blake Swihart
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Trevor Bauer, 2) Danny Hultzen, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: Blake Swihart - BA gave him a Wil Myers comp, 5 walks in first 6 pro games
2012 Stock Falling: Yonder Alonso - Average power moving to PETCO kills alot of his fantasy upside.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Brown, 20 to 1 Hultzen, 60 to 1 Swihart, 100 to 1 Marte

“Fast, power, graceful athlete”. No that's not Bill describing Eamonn, but instead his pre draft description of Starling Marte. At this point most of us read the same prospect writeups and see the same lists, yet Bill manages to view players wildly differently than the rest of the league. The Azorian draft plan could be characterized as the bizarro Nuts draft. Instead of picking 16 yr old dominicans with multiple birth certificates Bill went with his usual modest ceiling, high floor draft plan. Marte, Olt, Bauer and Hultzen fit that plan to a tee and many fellow league members most likely had Bill pegged for them after one read of the Bible. Brown and Swihart were outliers and definitely have some major upside if things come together.

Similar to the Whales I couldn't tell you what direction the Anchormen are going. They have interesting some interesting MLB players surrounded by AL/NL only players like Brent Morel and Jordan Lyles. Only the Anchormen know where their going and they sure hope it leads them past the elusive 500 mark.

8) Brew Crew
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) George Springer, 2) Mason Williams, 3) Brett Jackson
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Drew Pomeranz, 2) James Paxton, 3) Matt Harvey
2012 Stock Rising: James Paxton - Strong 2011 that included 131 K’s in 95 innings. Has a 0.87 era to start 2012.
2012 Stock Falling: Stetson Allie - 2011 2nd rd prospect pick likely a bust, cant buy a strike with 33 walks in 26 pro innings.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Springer, 5 to 1 Paxton, 15 to 1 Williams, 400 to 1 Cowart

The defending champs come in at number 8 on the list with a number of potential 5 tool outfielders and solid pitching prospects. I’m probably too low on this team but I’m not a fan of two of the players you see on many top 100 lists: d’Arnaud and Jackson. Both have strikeout problems that could/should be exposed even more when they get to the majors. Jackson in particular has a K rate close to 30% as a 23 yr old in AAA. He should be a productive player but not the star that alot of people projected him to be.

The Brew Crew don’t have many holes but could use some pitching depth considering they have Chris Capuano currently warming the bench. Drew Pomeranz should fill that hole and be an impact player for the Brew Crew in 2012. I fully expect him to surplant Johan in the Crew’s rotation and become a potential weekly contributor. It’s also very possible that Paxton could reach the majors considering the Mariners are starting Millwood/Noesi/Vargas on a weekly basis. Overall the pitching and hitting prospects are all luxuries for a team that is very strong top to bottom.

9) Quahogs
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Matt Szcur, 2) Billy Hamilton, 3) Max Kepler
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Carlos Martinez, 2) Julio Teheran, 3) Mike Montgomery
2012 Stock Rising: Enny Romero - His control has become a problem but he has upside that matches Pat’s other pitchers.
2012 Stock Falling: Mike Montgomery - Things fell apart in AAA during 2011 where his K rate fell and ERA was over 5.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Martinez, 4 to 1 Teheran, 200 to 1 Hamilton, 500 to 1 Szcur

The Hog’s farm system would look alot better with Nolan Arenado in it but the team needed Nelson Cruz to weather a number of preseason injuries. Instead pitchers Carlos Martinez (fastball touches 100) and Julio Teheran (reached the majors at 20) lead the farm system and could both develop into strong keepers for Pat in the near future. Whats less promising is the number of failed dominicans littering the teams 25 deep prospect system. Former promising prospects such as Michael Almanzar, Engel Beltre, Jose Martinez and Rafael Rodriguez illustrate the huge risk people take in drafting young scouting report only stars.

Similar to the Brew Crew, the Hogs have a strong major league roster and dont need to rely on the development of any of these prospects. It’s likely that Carlos Martinez and possible others will meet the same fate of Arenado, Moustakas and other top prospects and be dealt at the deadline in Pats quest to take home his first NKFBL title.

10) Monsters
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Brian Goodwin, 2) Slade Heathcott, 3) Levon Washington
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Joe Ross, 2) Luis Heredia, 3) Anthony Ranaudo
2012 Stock Rising: Brian Goodwin - See NKFBL chat room. 375/524/813 with a 2 hrs and 2 sbs in his first 5 pro games.
2012 Stock Falling: Anthony Ranaudo - The 22 yr old Red Sox 1st Rd pick had a less than dominating debut in A ball (ERA of 4).
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Goodwin, 10 to 1 Ross, 300 to 1 Heredia

When you graduate Hosmer/Stanton/Santana and trade Montero/Profar/Sano, impact players in your farm system are bound to be few and far between. The Monsters are very thin in prospects with even their top guys Joe Ross and Brian Goodwin rankings based on scouting reports instead of pro data. It’s hard to find any people still excited about Tim Beckham, Michael Taylor or NKFBL legend Ethan Martin but theres always the small chance things could click for one of those guys.

The Monsters are a long long way from the debacle that was The Names franchise. KOB has turned the laughing stock in the league into a potential yearly playoff contender in short time. As good as the roster is there are still holes (See Wells, Vernon) and KOB will need to use trades, pickups and the MLB draft instead of his farm system to fill them.

11) Pandas
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Domingo Santana, 2) Matt Davidson, 3) Kyle Parker
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) None, 2) None, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: Juan Duran - 6’7” Duran had his best season to date hitting 264 with 17 hrs, both career highs..
2012 Stock Falling: Bobby Borchering - The strikeouts are out of control - 162 in 135 games last season .
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Santana, 8 to 1 Davidson, 75 to 1 Parker, 400 to 1 Duran

Even the Pandas owner is probably surprised to know his team didnt register last on this list. Heard commonly saying “prospects are for the birds”, the Pandas organization is firmly against waiting for prospects to develop. This strategy has helped them get many of the reliable steady players on their roster today, while also burning them with players such as Kemp, Pedroia and most recently Justin Upton.

It’s hard not to yawn when you see the list of the players that remain in the Pandas system. All three top hitting prospects are interesting but far from sure things. Domingo Santana may stand the best chance of wearing a pandas jesery someday. In 17 games after his trade from the Phillies to the Astros he hit 382 with 5 hrs and a respectable 6 to 15 bb to k ratio. It might not be much but for the Pandas its all they got.

12) Benders

Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Willin Rosario, 2) Jean Segura, 3) James Darnell
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) None, 2) None, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: None
2012 Stock Falling: Jean Seguar - OPS has fallen from 909 to 829 to 787.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 2 to 1 Segura, 10 to 1 Darnell, 100 to 1 Mejia, 1000 to 1 Flores

The Benders are a popular sleeper pick this season with an offense full of steady vets and a pitching staff as deep as any in the league. Don’t look at the farm system to provide any additional support. Willin Rosario broke camp in the majors but has yet to secure everyday abs and many of the other prospects simply arent prospects anymore. To be fair, the Benders did have Christian Yelich before dealing him to the Carbombs in a Matt Holliday trade before the season.

It was surprising to me to see the Benders rank last since I always thought of the Pandas owning this spot permanently. However, its fair to wonder the plan/direction this team is headed. Could the Benders streak into the playoffs this year? Sure. Next year? Sure. The team is built to win now and similar to the Pandas will worry about tomorrow...tomorrow.

CZ Notes - Project Prospect Team Rankings by the Numbers

NKFBL friend and contributor Adam Foster released his Overall Top 25 Prospects a week ago. You can find it here

Here is how each team did; Foster's rankings in ( )

3 Prospects in top 25

RI Quahogs

• Yonder Alonso, 1B (12)
• Mike Moustakas, 3B (17)
• Julio Teheran, P (25)

Smoke Monsters

• Jesus Montero, C (3)
• Eric Hosmer, 1B (5)
• Dominic Brown, OF (7)

2 Prospects in top 25

New England Bombers

• Mike Trout, OF (2)
• Shelby Miller, P (13)

Attack Pigeons

• Dustin Ackley, 2B (4)
• Randall Delgado P (24)

Wickford Walnuts

• Wil Myers, C (8)
• Matt Moore, P (14)

Cuban Rampage

• Aroldis Chapman (15t)
• Desmond Jennings (15t)

Polska Pandas

• Jarrod Parker, P (11)
• Jaff Decker, OF (22)

1 Prospect in top 25

RIC Anchormen

• Jeremy Hellickson (21)

Binghamton HellBenders

• Freddie Freeman (9)

Remaining

Carbombs

Ballyhooly Ballers of Cork

Brew Crew

Unowned/Undrafted

• Bryce Harper (1)
• Brandon Belt (6)
• Jameson Taillon (10)
• Devin Mesoraco (16)
• Mike Minor (18)
• Michael Pineda (23)

What can we take away from this? Nothing really. But here's something interesting. While the Rampage only deal in "1st Rd. Prospects" as a rule of thumb, the average round these players were taken: 2.1

Year | Name | Team Drafted | rd

2010 Mike Trout, NEB | 3rd

2010 Jaff Decker, PP | 1st

2010 Randall Delgado, APC | 4th

2010 Dustin Ackley, APC | 1st

2010 Zach Britton, SM | 5th

2010 Shelby Miller, NEB | 1st

2010 Matt Moore, WW | 2nd

2010 Aroldis Chapman, CR | 1st

2009 Eric Hosmer, SM | 1st

2009 Freddie Freeman, SM | 3rd

2009 Jeremy Hellickson, RA | 3rd

2009 Yonder Alonso, BHB | 1st

2008 Desmond Jennings, CB | 2nd

2008 Mike Moustakas, RIQ | 1st

2008 Jarrod Parker, NEB | 2nd

2008 Dominic Brown, BHB | 3rd

2008 Jesus Montero, PP | 3rd

2008 Julio Teheran, RIQ | 4th

Picks by Round:

Rd. 1: 7

Rd. 2: 3

Rd. 3: 5

Rd. 4: 2

Rd. 5: 1

This gives you, if only a snapshot, an idea of what draft picks are worth. Here's a little list of the best draft values in NKFBL History:

2007:

Rd. 11 - Names: Nolan Reimold

Rd. 11 - Carbombs: Kyle Drabek

Rd. 12 - Names: Josh Hamilton

Rd. 13 - Brew Crew: Edinson Volquez

Rd. 14 - Attack Pigeons: Ricky Romero

Rd. 14 - Polska Pandas: Mark Reynolds

2008

Rd. 4 - RIQ: Neftali Feliz

Rd. 4 - RIQ: Julio Teheran

2009

Rd. 4 - RIQ Pablo Sandoval

Rd. 4 - WW Martin Perez

Rd. 5 - RA: Ike Davis

Top 25 Prospects Currently Owned

Ranked on current stats and future potential impact in fantasy with both age and level heavily considered.

1. Domonic Brown, OF, Monsters (Preseason Rank: 13) With 10 players graduating from the preseason top 25 its safe to say that the minors are at the weakest point they’ve been all season. Brown easily ascended to the rankings top spot with a huge 2010 where he hit 327 with 20 HR’s and 17 steals in only 93 games. The soon to be 23 yr old has shown that he has all the tools to develop into a big time player for both the Monster’s and the Phillies as soon as next season.

2. Jesus Montero, C, Monsters, (Preseason Rank: 2) Montero was a major player in one of the biggest trades in the NKFBL this season before almost getting traded in real life to the Mariners for Cliff Lee. After a slow start to the 2010 season Montero has really turned it on and hit 366 with 7 HR’s in AAA since the all star break.The added value of staying in Yankee stadium and being a power hitting catcher at just 20 yrs old makes him a no doubt top 3 prospect to own.

3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rampage, (Preseason Rank: 8) With Carl Crawford hitting free agency it looks inevitable that Jennings will take his place in the TB outfield. While his power is up for debate (3 HR’s in 97 games in a homer friendly Durham), he should hit for a high average and provide plenty runs and steals atop the TB lineup. The Rampage will surely take any help they can get on offense and Jennings should fit fine into “The Master Plan”. VIVA.

4. Mike Trout, OF, Bombers, (Preseason Rank: NR) Trout is easily the highest riser of any prospect in the minors for 2010. Despite being only 18 yrs old for most of the season he has a chance to be the minor league playor of the year. At two stops hes hit 340 with 8 HR’s and 52 steals and earned Brian Urlacher and Grady Sizemore comps along the way. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Trout hit the majors by the end of the 2011 with should leave both Mike Scoscia and the Bombers owner in need of new pants.

5. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Anchormen, (Preseason Rank: 17) In the midst of his 5th consecutive season posting a sub 3 ERA in the minors, Hellickson was finally recalled by the pitching stacked Rays. To no ones surprise he’s been dominant in his first three starts and holds an ERA of 1.35 after 20 innings. Hellickson should combine with Cliff Lee and Mad Max Scherzer to form a pretty solid future rotation for the Anchormen, will all three helping to provide a good ERA and plenty of K’s on a weekly basis.

6. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Quahogs, (Preseason Rank: NR)- Moose has had an up and down minor league career since he entered the draft after high school, last year being the lowest of his lows (.250 16 HR 86 RBI .297 OBP) and this year being the highest of his highs (.320 26 HR 94 RBI .370 OBP) With the improved batting eye and resurgence of his plus power he looks like a good bet to be a very productive 3B for the Royals as early as next year.

7. Julio Teheran, SP, Quahogs, (Preseason Rank: NR) Drafted by the Quahogs as a 16 year old Teheran has really come into his own this year as a 19 year old, Teheran has gone 8-7 with a 2.36 era and 144 K’s in 126 innings, this young power arm has front of the rotation potential and should make a splash when he reaches the bigs late next year or in 2012.

8. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Monsters, (Preseason Rank: NR) Hosmer had a bad rookie campaign while suffering from vision issues last season (.241 6 HR 59 RBI), he threw some lasic on that in the offseason and the results came through crystal clear, Hosmer has been tearin up Single/Double A this year throwing up a stat line of .339 16 HR 73 RBI and .410 OBP. He’s similar to Joey Votto with his gap power and high BA and the Monsters will hope he turns into the player that Votto has become.

9. Mike Montgomery, SP, Quahogs, (Preseason Rank: NR) The Hogs got some flack for taking Monty in the 2nd rd of the 2009 prospect draft and he’s done his best to dispel those critics. After a breakout year last year posting a 2.21 ERA and 98 K’s in 110 innings, Monty has followed it up with a very strong 2010, 6-3 2.38 ERA and 76 K in 75 IP. Monty should join Teheran as a nice 1-2 punch in the future Hogs rotation.

10. Brett Wallace, 1B, Rampage, (Preseason: 15) Wallace has been bounced around a ton, both in the MLB and NKFBL but he’s found a home (for now at least) with the Astros and the Cuban Rampage. Wallace is a straight up hitter and although he may be lacking the power necessary to be a stud at 1B he should end up hitting plenty enough to be a very productive fantasy player.

11. J.P. Arencibia, C, Rampage (Preseason Rank: NR) A 2007 first round pick, Arencibia finally put on display many of the skills scouts have been raving about. His plate discipline leaves a little to be desired, as evidenced by his 34 BB in 95 AAA games this year. The power, though, is irrefutable with 31 bombs and a .639 SLG and .998 OPS at AAA. Despite his tendency to hack away, he did manage to hit .303. He looks like the answer for the Blue Jays as Catcher long-term, and should be a main stay at a thin position in the NKFBL.

12. Will Myers, C, Walnuts (Preseason Rank: NR) Another power hitting Catcher, William Myers has been putting up boner-popping numbers at High Class A as a 19 year old. Combining his two levels this season he’s hitting a robust .323 with 11 dingers and 69 RBI. He boasts a K/BB ratio of more than 1/1, and an OBP of .484 at High A ball.! Bonerific! Any time those OPS figures start with a 1 you know you’ve got a stud on your hands.

13. Randall Delgado, SP, Pigeons, (Preseason Rank: NR) Along with Teheran, Delgado gives the Braves a couple of young flame throwers at the AA level. He’s struggled a bit since being promoted, but at 20 years old he’s got plenty of time to right the ship. His numbers were eye-popping at A ball, and combined he has a K for every inning between two levels this season. He led the Carolina league in K’s with a K/BB ratio of 3.75/1. Noice.

14. Chris Carter, 1B, Ballers, (Preseason Rank: 11) At 6’5” 230 LB this guy looks as much NFL tight end as he does MLB 1B. He’ll probably never hit more that .260 at the bigs but he’ll slug the shit out of the ball. He’ll be interesting to watch next year, as I would expect he’ll win the starting job out of camp. He’s a little aged, but the Ballers will be hoping he is like a fine wine. Look for a whole heap of taters, and plenty of K’s on the side.

15. Matt Moore, SP, Walnuts, (Preseason Rank: NR) One word. Filthy. The 21 year old, Moore, has 182 K’s through 127 IP. What?! On top of that he has only walked 59. Guys at A ball just can not seem to square this dude up. Next year, and the next level should be very telling for Matt Moore, as we’ve all seen guys put up huge K numbers at A ball only to not sustain it at the higher levels. All indications on this kid though, are that he is the real deal. Looks like the Nuts could have a very nice young commodity on their hands.

16. Brett Jackson, OF, Brew Crew, (Preseason Rank: NR) Unlike his failed teammate Josh Vitters (RIP Walnuts former 1st rd pick), Brett Jackson has shown a good all around game and put together a productive 2010 season in AA. He continues to show the ability to hit for good avg (over 300 both years) to go along with Shane Victorino like pop (10 hrs 12 triples 28 doubles). Jackson will need to put up those numbers or better if he hopes to ever crack the Brew Crew lineup that will welcome back Morales, Blanks, Ellsbury and ManRam in 2011.

17. Brett Lawrie, 2B/RF, Monsters, (Preseason: NR) As a second basemen Lawrie could develop into top 5 player at the position in the future. Despite being only 20 yrs old his 2010 AA numbers have been excellent and he has far outproduced fellow 2B prospect Dustin Ackley. The problem is whether Lawrie can stick at second or if he will be moved to third or the outfield starting in 2011. Either move wouldnt ruin Lawrie as a prospect but would certainly diminish his value in the NKFBL.

18. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Quahogs (Preseason Rank: 22) The talk of Alonso forcing Votto into the outfield has certainly ended and it now seems to be a question of where there is room for Alonso in Cincy. A slow start to 2010 made it a moot point until recently when he put up a line of 364/449/568 with 3 hr’s since the all star break. While he still only has 12 HR’s on the season, a strong finish by could have him destined to the majors and the homerun friendly Great American Ballpark sometime in 2011.

19. Shelby Miller, SP, Bombers, (Preseason Rank: NR) Shelby Miller, the recent subject of a “who’d you rather”, is yet another high upside Bombers first rd pick that looks destined for the majors. Following in the footsteps of Heyward and Posey he has put up eyeopening numbers as a 19 yr old. In A ball this season he has 120 K’s and just 28 walks allowed in 91 IP to date and only sports as ERA over 3 due to a few poor opening months when he was on a strict pitch count. Miller may take longer to make the majors than other pitchers on this list but he certainly looks like he will join Felix, Ubaldo and Kershaw in the Bombers rotation.

20. Tyler Matzek, SP, Ballers, (Preseason Rank: NR) The sixth pick in last years prospect draft spent the year in A ball just like Miller. In his first 15 starts he.holds an ERA under 3 and a 1/1 K/BB ratio. However like most young pitchers he’s struggled to find consistency and has given out 51 free passes in just 78 innings. The Rockies and Ballers will almost certainly need to give him 1 or 2 more seasons in the minors to work on that control. When he does make the majors he’ll join Garza and anyone else the rebuilding Ballers decide to keep around.

21. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Rampage, (Preseason Rank: NR) The Cuban lefty arguably has more potential than anyone on this list but he’s still adjusting to the strike zone. He’s put up some impressive numbers in his first year in America, going 8-6 with a 3.74 era and 116 K’s in 91 IP, although he also has 52 walks in that time. If he can harness that control without losing too much off of his stuff he’ll be a top of the rotation starter on a Rampage roster full of them.

22. Martin Perez, SP, Walnuts, (Preseason Rank: 14) After a 2009 that saw Perez post a 2.90 ERA and 119 K’s in 114 IP Perez flew his way up the prospect rankings and drew Johan Santana comparisons, in 2010 he’s taking a huge leap backward. Perez has posted a 5.87 ERA and opponents are hitting .285 against him. If Perez can rediscover his 2009 self he can be a top of the rotation starter, if not he’s looking more like a power lefty from the pen.

23. Miguel Sano, 3B, Monsters, (Preseason Rank: NR) Sano’s writeup in the handbook had most of the NKFBL drooling. KOB scooped him up at the end of the 1st round and at the age of 17 he’s more than holding his own in Rookie ball. Sano has hit .316 with 6 homers and a .392 OBP. Sano has oodles of potential and although he’s a long ways away he looks like he could cash in on that potential.

24. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Benders (Preseason Rank: NR) Freeman has consistently been one of the Braves best minor league bats and nothing has changed this year, he’s hitting .311 with 16 HR and 75 RBI. He’s a poor man’s Brett Wallace and just like Wally it’ll be his power that will make or break him as an impact fantasy bat, will he be Lyle Overbay or Mark Tiexiera?

25. Matt Davidson, 3B, Pandas (Preseason Rank: NR) He may look like a Chauncey but the guy mashes. This season as a 19 year old in Class A he’s putting up this statline .292 BA 16 HR 79 RBI and a .374 OBP. The guy can hit, and although he’s still 2 or 3 years away from making an impact in the NKFBL, it looks like it may be a dynamic one.



Next Fifteen - Fifteen more names strongly considered:

1. Aaron Hicks, OF, Pandas Hicks has that power/speed potential that everyone in the NKFBL craves. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but they are solid. The .394 AVG is particularly nice, but temper those expectations at the MLB level b/c this is only A ball. His last 10 (as of 8/16/10) though, are quite nice with a .352 AVG and a .982 OPS. He has drawn comparisons to a young Torii Hunter, another former Twins prospect. He’s got 30/30 potential, but will need to start showing more signs of it to keep those hopes alive. At the time he was drafted he also boasted a fastball off the mound that was clocked as high as 97 mph. Just sayin’. Closer of the futurrrrrre? Haha

2. Dustin Ackley, OF, Pigeons Count me in as one of the haterade drinkers on this guy. The move to 2B is nice because it is perennially a thin position, but I’ve never much liked this guy. Coming out of college he was highly touted as a hit machine, but didn’t look like he’d ever develop power. If you don’t have it with an aluminum bat will you ever? He is already at AAA and shouldn’t have much blocking his way in Seattle. His .778 MiLB OPS isn’t giving the Pigeons any signs of a bright future for the next Chase Utley.

3. Jacob Turner, SP, Anchormen Loved this guy coming out of the draft. Boasts a couple plus pitches and a nice projectable frame - to use some scout terminology. Detroit has done well recently in turning out pitchers, mainly Verlander and Porcello and Turner was rumored to be more advanced than both. His K numbers have dropped dramatically (from 51 in 54 IP to 30 in 41 IP) since moving to advanced Class A. He’ll need to regain that form if he hopes to be an ace in the making. Only 19 years old.

4. Zach Wheeler SP Ballers Zack Attack is only 20 years old, but looks poised to be another great arm in the foggy bay area. The Ballers hope he can make their future a little less cloudy. His 3.89 ERA and 52 K in 41 IP are a good sign. Perhaps most impressive...he’s allowed 0 HR so far in his minor league career.

5. Simon Castro SP Anchormen This guy looks intimidating. Like maybe he’d hang out with Ben Roethlisberger in some seedy Pittsburgh night clubs. Anyway...his stuff is intimidating as well. And in AA he is holding his own. With a sub-3 ERA and a BAA of .221 he looks well on his way to big league success. He might want to up the K numbers to get into that Ace or at least solid #2 stratosphere, but he could be a nice addition to the Anchormen staff in a couple years...especially if he sticks in San Diego.

6. Arodys Vizcaino, SP, Brew Crew Despite being only 19 yrs old Vizcaino reached high A ball in 2010 and joined a stacked Myrtle Beach rotation that included top 10 prospect Julio Teheran. While he struggled initially before getting hurt he has dominated the lower minors to this point showing good K/BB ratios and limited his HR’s allowed (3 allowed in the past 2 yrs). More experience seems to be the only thing Vizcaino is missing and he certainly seems to have the ability to develop into a top of the rotation start for the Braves and the Crew.

7. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Anchormen It’d be hard to argue that Chisenhall has lived up to the expectations the Anchormen had when they drafted him 5th overall in last years prospect draft. As a 21 yr old in AA he has put up a pedestrian stat line of 270/339/444 with 15 HR’s. Even with a good K/BB ratio it’s hard to see Chisenhall developing into more than a Brandon Inge type player in majors and it’s more than likely that he’ll end up in the first round prospect bust pile with Josh Vitters.

8. Logan Morrison, 1B, Ballers Thoughout the minors Morrison has shown the ability to hit for average but has failed to prove that he will develop the ability to put up legit 1B type power. Since his 24 HR output in 2007 he has only been able to muster 27 more HR’s in over 280 games. That type of power will get you Casey Kotchman comps all day long in the NKFBL and could give Morrison a better chance at landing on the wavier wire than on the Ballers keeper list.
9. Ryan Kalish OF Walnuts Kalish is mostly known in the NKFBL for the season ending hit he laid on Monsters Catcher Carlos Santana in one of the first games after his recall. Despite how great that was he’s actually done a pretty solid job for Sox in a part time role where he’s hit over 300 with 2 big HR’s vs the Yankees an Angels. His big season in AAA (294 with 13 HR’s and 25 steals in two stops) give reason to think that his hot start might not be a Brennan Boesch like fluke. .

10. Gary Sanchez C Carbombs-The Carbombs system might be light on prospects right now but it certainly looks like 17 yr old Gary Sanchez could develop into a stud. As one of the youngest players in Rookie Ball he ranks 1st or 2nd in the league in all triple crown categories after just 30 games (most players have played 40-45). Sanchez should push to make the top 25 sometime next year despite being years away.

11. Wilmer Flores, SS, Benders- Flores is only 19 but he’s already a seasoned vet of the minor leagues. In his 3 years of minor league ball he’s put up good batting averages and shown a solid eye at the plate, his projectable power is still just that, projectable. He’s still got a ton of time to develop that power and from the looks of his scouting report he will.

12. Casey Kelly, SP, Pigeons- Kelly was a two way player until last year when the Sox decided to groom him as a pitcher. For someone who just started focusing on pitching he is rather advanced, able to control 3 pitches. His 2010 campaign hasn’t been nearly as good as his 2009 campaign but at 21 he’s still got the time and the upside to become a valuable member of the Sox, and Pigeons’ already deep rotations.

13. Kyle Gibson, SP, Brew Crew- His injury past scared off some teams in the NKFBL draft but the Brad used his golden touch and nabbed Gibson at the end of the second round. He has the upside of a Wheeler/ Turner who went a little earlier and is showing off some of his good stuff already, he’s posted a 11-6 record with a 3.04 ERA and 118 K’s vs 36 BB in 142 innings.

14. Dellin Betances SP Carbombs The player that was mysteriously forgotten by the Ballers when the Oswalt trade was consummated has finally broken through in 2010. Knapp drafted him way back in the 1st prospect draft as a 17 year old and he’s battled through inconsistency and injury to post a 1.61 ERA this season with 82 K and 18 BB in 67 Innings as a Starter in Class A. He’s still a few years off and at 22 he’s a little old for his level but look for him to shoot through the minors quickly if he keeps this up.

15. Dee Gordon, SS, Walnuts Devarias slipped big time in the NKFBL draft and was nabbed by the Walnuts and he hasn’t disappointed so far. The known speedster has put together a real nice 2010 campaign, hitting .285 with 47 steals. Gordon is coming off a 2009 where he hit 301 and nabbed 73 bases so the speed and average is there. He could develop into a Juan Pierre at short stop, which definitely has some value in the NKFBL

Dropped Out of the Top 25:
Kyle Drabek, SP, Ballers, (Preseason Rank: 16)
Jarrod Parker, SP, Pandas, (Preseason Rank: 18)
Fernando Martinez, OF, Bombers, (Preseason Rank: 18)
Todd Frazier, 3B, Walnuts, (Preseason Rank: 21)
Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Bombers, (Preseason Rank: 22)
Logan Morrison, 1B, Ballers, (Preseason Rank: 24)


Graduated From the Top 25:
Jason Heyward, OF, Bombers, (Preseason Rank: 1)
Carlos Santana, C, Monsters, (Preseason Rank: 3)
Brian Matusz, SP, Ballers, (Preseason Rank: 4)
Neftali Feliz, CL, Benders, (Preseason Rank: 5)
Michael Stanton, OF, Monsters, (Preseason Rank: 6)
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Benders, (Preseason: 7)
Justin Smoak, 1B, Quahogs, (Preseason: 9)
Buster Posey, C, Bombers, (Preseason: 10)
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Rampage, (Preseason: 12)
Alcedis Escobar, SS, Anchormen, (Preseason: 25)


Breakdown of Players by Team for the Top 25:
Monsters 5
Quahogs 4
Rampage 4
Walnuts 3
Bombers 2
Ballers 2
Pigeons 1
Anchormen 1
Pandas 1
Brew Crew 1
Benders 1
Carbombs 0

Who'd you rather?

Who’d you rather?

In this new weekly segment on the NKFBL Prospect blog, one of our writers compares two similar prospects and breaks down which one they’d rather have, you join in on the discussion in the comments section, here we go…

Shelby Miller vs Jacob Turner

Here we have 2 1st rd picks from this past year’s prospect draft. They are both are big strong right handers who are projectable as top of the rotation starters. Turner stands in at 6’4 210 lb and was the #9 overall pick of high school by the Tigers, he’ll look to following the footsteps of the last high school pitcher the Tigers took in the first round, Rick Porcello (minus the sophomore slump). Turner’s stuff is very good with a fastball that ranges from 90-94 and peaks at 98, he also mixes in a big curveball and a solid changeup to keep hitters off balance. He’s done very well in his first year of minor league ball tossing 100 innings thus far with a 3.77 ERA and 83 K against 20 walks. He’s holding hitters to a .247 average.

Shelby was the #19 pick overall in 2009 out of high school. The Cardinals have high hopes from the young Texan. Miller is 6’3 195 pounds and mixes in 3 pitches nicely. He has a strong tailing fastball that sits in the 91-93 range, a good changeup that sticks around 82-83 and a curveball that he uses sparingly. Miller has used his stuff to overpower hitters this year as he has put up some impressive numbers as well. He’s posted a 3.74 ERA in 91 IP with 121 K’s and 28 Walks while holding hitters to a .245 batting average. Although he was drafted in 2009 he only pitched 3 innings so for all intensive purposes this is his first look at professional ball.

The verdict: They are both very similar and have similar numbers and stuff. If I could have one of the two I’d take Shelby Miller. Miller has the more dominating stuff, and while they both have shown they can get hitters out consistently, Miller has shown much more of a feel for the K. In baseball and in fantasy baseball being able to strike people out is a huge advantage. Although 81 K’s in 100 Innings are nothing to sneeze at Turner will have to watch out that he doesn’t turn into Porcello who’s lack of K’s really came back to hurt in amongst other things in his sophomore season. So give me Shelby Miller, who’d you rather?

2011 NKFBL Mock Prospect Draft (9 Months Early)

By Brendan Hart

With the 2010 MLB draft underway I thought it would be interesting to see where some of the top prospects might land in next year’s NKFBL draft. Using the current standings and some projection for the rest of the way I made a very loose guess as to what may happen. Being a short 9 months away from the draft it’s hard to know what current minor leaguers will breakout and what Cubans the Rampage will find through Google. Nevertheless enjoy some light reading.



1) Anchormen - Bryce Harper OF, Nationals

If Stephen Strasberg is the most hyped prospect in the history of baseball, then Bryce Harper needs to be considered a close 2nd. The consensus number 1 pick in the MLB draft will also be the number 1 pick in the next NKFBL draft. The Anchormen, Rampage and Ballers will all be in the running for Harper and it should be interesting to see which teams lands him. The Rampage once traded for the Monsters pick in the hopes that it was a lock to be the number 1 pick….whomp.

2) Rampage – Manny Machado, SS, Orioles

The second pick in the draft will most likely be Machado or Taillon. Both the Rampage and Ballers could be selecting in this spot and could use a high upside offensive player. Arod comparisons have been tossed around in the weeks leading up to the draft but it seems more likely that he’ll be more of a threat for 20 to 25 hr’s. While he could take a long time to develop he certainly would be going to a team in position to wait.

3) Ballers – Jameson Taillon, SP, Pirates

Most white 6’7” pitchers are in the Pandas organization but it seems unlikely that Taillon will be around for when they pick. Coming off a very disappointing 2010 season, the Ballers will most likely jump at the chance to take a pitcher described as the complete package with three plus pitches and good makeup. Even with the need for offense it should be hard to pass him up. With Taillon, Matzek, Matusz and Wheeler the Ballers would seem primed to have a very good pitching staff in the future.

4) Pigeons – Christian Colon, SS, Royals

After a 4-2 start to the season the Pigeons have dropped three straight and look like they could be poised for a finish south of 500. For nine weeks the team has struggled to get production from a SS and can clearly use a long term solution at the position. Colon’s upside doesn’t match Machado’s but he is also likely to reach the majors sooner and is regarded as more of a safe bet. Outfielders Josh Sale and Michael Choice would also fit here.

5) Rampage (Monsters), Nick Castallanos 3B, Tigers

The Monsters currently lead the NL at 6-3 despite having the 5th worst breakdown. It’s hard to see that luck continuing despite the new addition of Stanton to the lineup. A regression to the mean should likely have the Monsters finishing towards the bottom of the NKFBL and leave the Rampage with a decent pick. While its likely Lester and Pearce will opt for a Cuban signed weeks before the draft they could certainly take a look at Castallanos. The new Tigers 3B is likely to hit for both power and average and seemingly has a clear path to the majors.

6) Brew Crew - Josh Sale, OF, Rays

Who would predict that The B could be drafting in the middle of round 1 in 2011? Despite being only 9 weeks into the 2010 season it is hard to see the Crew rebounding and making this year’s playoffs. If Brad chooses to trade some of his good (but older) stars at the deadline his team could finish in this spot. The Brew Crew have made it no secret that they favor high ceiling toolsy outfielders in the draft and Josh Sale would be yet another high upside one to join the farm system. Sale’s doesn’t have the tools of a Desmond Jennings or a Brett Jackson but he could show the power of Mike Stanton. Like Stanton there are a few concerns about whether he’ll make enough contact to show all the power he has. If he has a strong showing in 2010 look for him to rise up the 2011 draft board and possibly go in the top 3 or 4 picks.

7) Walnuts (Benders) – Michael Choice, OF, Athletics

The Benders are having exactly the type of season that the Walnuts hoped they wouldn’t have in 2010. Almost overnight the Benders have turned into a scary team to play week to week and a team that should only get better. Despite the good start the Benders probably finish with the 6th best record leaving the Walnuts with the 7th pick. Michael Choice seems like one of the biggest high risk high reward picks in next year’s draft due to his big power and questionable mechanics. If he figures things out Choice could turn into a 30 hr threat, while having the downside of turning into a career AAA player if he doesn’t.

8) Carbombs – Karsten Whitson, SP, Padres

It’s hard to predict how the Carbombs will finish the 2010 season. After 9 games they are still in the hunt and still have a lot of dangerous hitters that can get hot at any moment. Despite Tex having a huge second half the Carbombs just miss out on the playoffs and find themselves drafting 8th in the first round. Carrying one of the weaker pitching staffs into the 2011 season the Carbombs may opt to draft a pitcher. This year’s MLB draft seems to have a strong group of high school pitchers and Karten is regarded as one of the best in that group. A projectionable pitcher with good mechanics and plus pitches could move fast and have a great future pitching in Petco.

9) Walnuts – Jake Scole, OF, Rangers

The Walnuts fade faster than the 2007 & 2008 Mets in the second half of the 2010 NKFBL season but sneak into the playoffs due to a hot start. The playoffs turn into a repeat of last year and the Walnuts finish 4th for a second straight year. With the second pick of the first round the Nuts again go with an outfielder and get roped in by the “five tool” potential. The Grady Sizemore comparison probably would have sounded a little better a year ago huh?

10) Bombers - Zach Cox, 3B, Cardinals

The Bombers finish strong in 2010 and make a return appearance to the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Bombers they get unlucky and lose which leads to a massive Uustal rant and broken things throughout his apartment. Nevertheless the stacked Bombers draft 10th in 2011 and look for a long term solution at 3B to succeed Arod. While it seems unlikely that Cox will sign with the Cardinals it seems likely that he will be a first or second round selection if he does choose to turn pro.

11) Rampage (Pandas) - Yasmani Grandal, C, Reds

Jayson Werth and his Jesus beard lead the Pandas deeper than expected in the playoffs and just short of a second championship. The strong showing by the Pandas leaves the Rampage with a late first round selection. For their third first round pick in 2011 the Rampage could net choose to net a highly touted Cuban such as Yasmani Grandal. While the Rampage seem obsessed with mediocre catchers they could look for the long term solution and grab a player that should hit for both average and power.

12) Quahogs – AJ Cole, SP, Nationals

The Quahogs put things together in 2010 and get extremely hot to end the season. The addition of Lester and some deadline deals help the Hogs get into the playoffs and take home their first championship. Stocked with young hitters in the majors and minors, the team opts to grab a high upside pitcher like AJ Cole to round out the first round of the prospect draft. While Cole fell in the MLB draft he still has a ton of talent and ability. In a few years he could slot behind Strasberg in the Nationals rotation to form a dangerous 1-2 combination.

A Few Other names that could go in the Top 3 Rounds:
-Dylan Covey, SP, Brewers
-Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
-Christian Yelich, 1B, Marlins
-Tyrell Jenkins, SP Cardinals
-Kolbrin Vitek, 2B, Red Sox

2010 Round 5 Review

By Pat Henderson

49) Jurickson Profar- SS- TEX- Monsters

KOB started off the 5th round with the talented 16 year old Profar, much to Uustal’s chagrin. The thing that sets Profar appart from most other super young prospects is his advanced approach. He shows patients at the plate and a great attitude and work ethic. He should be a plus defender and puts the bat on the ball. Profar is still very young but he looks like great value here.

ETA: 2016
Best Case: Cal Ripken (minus the games streak)
Worst Case: Mike Bordic
Pick Analysis: Potential Steal

50) Guillermo Pimentel- OF- SEA- Bombers

With the pick that Uustal was planning on using for Profar, he added the powerful Pimentel to the Bomb squad. Pimentel shows immense power potential, grading a 70 on the 20-80 scale. He’s got a lightning quick bat but also has a lot of negatives. Granted he is only 17 but Pimentel is very impatient at the plate and doesnt hit much besides fastballs. He tends to be very pull heavy and will need to learn to go the other way and lay off a pitch or two if he is ever going to realize his potential. It’s a lot of ifs but at 17 he’s got some time to iron out the wrinkles in his game.

ETA: 2017 (that sounds like a year from a science fiction movie)
Best Case: A left handed Gary Shefield
Worst Case: (and probable case) Willy-Mo Pena
Pick Analysis: Stretch

51) Max Stassi- C- OAK- Quahogs

Stassi “appears to be the closest thing to a sure bet as a high schooler can be”. He has a strong balenced swing and hits to all fields. He looks like he’s got the game to stick at catcher and the Quahogs are hoping that he can be the eventual replacement to V-Mart at catcher, but it looks to be a few years down the road since he’s only 18.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Pudge Rodriguez
Worst Case: Scott Hatteburg
Pick Analysis: Good

52) Max Kepler- OF- MIN- Quahogs

The Quahogs used their 2nd of 3 consecutive picks to snag the 16 year old German, Kepler. Kepler is a potential 5 tool player who is already a great athlete. The son of ballet dancers (I didn't know male ballet dancers had kids) is a plus runner, hits the ball with authority and covers good ground in the outfield. He’s trying to become the first ever German major leaguer and the quahogs are hoping that he can become a successful one. It’s tough to tell with toolsy 16 year olds and most of them don't ever get heard from again but in the 5th round its worth the risk.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Reggie Sanders
Worst Case: Delmon Van Youngstein
Pick Analysis: Good

53) Thomas Neal- OF- SF- Quahogs

The Quahogs used their 3rd pick in the 5th round to take the “unsexy” Thomas Neal. Neal is 22 years old which is on the ancient end of Quahogs prospects but he’s proven himself in the minors and looks to have some upside. He had a huge year in High A last year going .337 22 HR 90 RBI and an OBP of .431. He’s got a strong arm in the outfield and his patient approach and power swing will hopefully translate to a good every day major leaguer.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Raul Ibanez
Worst Case: Fred Lewis
Pick Analysis: Solid

54) Tony Sanchez- C- PIT- Ballers

The former BC Eagle looks like a sure bet to make the big leagues. He’s an excellent defensive catcher and swings a solid stick. He hit over .300 last year and he should develop at least average power. He doesnt have as much upside as some of the picks in this round but like Neal he looks to be more of a sure thing.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Jason Kendell (when he was good)
Worst Case: Jason Kendell (after he was good)
Pick Analysis: Good

55) Zach Britton- SP- BAL- Smoke Monsters

Britton looks like a prototypical sinker/slider pitcher and a sure bet to be a solid MLB starter. He has solid velocity for a sinker baller, hitting 94, but usually sitting in the 88-92 range. Baltimore has a ton of pitching prospects as was evident by Tillman getting sent back to AAA to start the season so it looks like Britton’s path might be blocked for now, but he’ll be pitching for the O’s sooner rather than later. In a round littered with high risk, high reward players KOB snagged what looks like a sure thing.

ETA: 2010
Best Case: Derrek Lowe
Worst Case: Carlos Silva
Pick Analysis: Good value

56) Jiwan James- OF- PHI- Carbombs

Brendan thought that James was a dead ringer to be picked by the Quahogs but surprisingly I didnt have him on my list. James is one of the toolsiest of the toolsy prospects. James has upside but he seems a long way off from realizing it. He started off as a pitcher until injuries side tracked that promising career (7.71 ERA in 2007). James is only 20 years old but has shown a history of injuries and is very raw, there were plenty of toolsy guys left that seemed to have more of a shot of hitting the bigs, James seems to be more of an athlete than a baseball player, I think he was a reach here.

ETA: 3055
Best Case: Felix Pie
Worst Case: Bruce Jenner
Pick Analysis: Stretch

57) Grant Greene- SS- OAK- Walnuts

The pre-draft rumor mill was sending Green to Lester in the 1st round which I thought woulda been the worst pick since Jason Hirsh and then he went for Hechavarria. I dont mind the Green pick at the end of the 5th round but I’m not a huge fan of him as a prospect. He doesnt look like he’ll stick at short long term with questionable defensive ability already and scouts are sold on his bat. He’s 21 and spent last year in High A so he still looks a few years off from the bigs.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: John Valentine
Worst Case: Bobby Crosby
Pick Analysis: Not a reach

58) Chad James- SP- FLA- Quahogs

James was decently high on my draft list so I was pleased to get him with the 3rd to last pick of the draft. James has good velocity for a lefty, sitting in the 91-92 range and hitting 95. He’s got a curveball that can be a plus and a good attitude to go along with it. Hopefully James will develop a little better than former Marlins lefty and Quahog Andrew Miller.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Steve Avery
Worst Case: Andrew Miller (so far)
Pick Analysis: Good

59) Everett Williams- OF- SD- Brew Crew

Williams is a raw athlete with serious pop. He comes from a family of athletes and once hit a 500 foot bomb. He was one of the top prep hitters coming out in 2009 and looks like he could become a successful major leaguer if he can learn some patients. I like this pick better than the Jiwan James one because although he is a high risk, high reward toolsly player he seems to have more of a shot of reaching his lofty upside or at least some of it than James.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Carl Everett (one that believes in Dinosaurs)
Worst Case: Elijah Dukes (one that doesnt threaten his wife’s life)
Pick Analysis:
Better Pick:

60) Jason Knapp- SP- CLE- Carbombs

I figured Knapp would scoop up his name sake in last years draft when he pretty much had the whole 5th round, but he picked Westmoreland instead, I guess he made the right decision. Knapp seems to be a classic bullpen arm with an explosive fastball and a good, but inconsistent curveball. Developing his change up seems to be what will make the difference between him ending up in the rotation or the bull pen. I think he’ll wind up as a strong set up man or closer, as the last pick in the draft the last name alone makes it a worth while pick.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Billy Kotch
Worst Case: Andrew Knapp
Pick Analysis: Good

2010 Round 4 Review

By Pat Henderson

(I got rid of the Better Pick because it’s all a grab bag down in this part of the draft)

37) Gary Sanchez- C- NYY- Carbombs

Knapp scooped up the 17 year old to begin the 4th round and got a potential star. The Yanks inked Sanchez with the 3rd largest signing bonus for an INT teen (behind Inoa and Sano) and the 4th largest signing bonus in Yanks history. Sanchez seems to have the tools to stick at catcher and with power that rates out to a 60 on the 20-80 scale he looks to have the skill set to be a fantasy stud. He is however 17 years old and will have a long way to go in terms of years and development until he’s sitting atop the Carbombs roster.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Victor Martinez
Worst Case: JD Closser
Pick Analysis: Good upside for pick position

38) Randall Delgado- SP- ATL- Pigeons

Sully’s good drafted contined grabbing the high upside Delgado in the 4th. Delgado is the classic big arm prospect, he’s got good, potentially great stuff but his control struggles. He seemed to put it together somewhat in the 2nd half of last year and finished the season with more strikeouts than innings pitched. Developing the curve, change and control will be the determine how far Delgado can go.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Ublado Jiminez
Worst Case: Jesus Colome
Pick Analysis: Good

39) Edward Salcedo- SS- ATL- Walnuts

Who is Edward Salcedo? Call me a international nub but I didnt recognize this name when he came off the board in the 4th. Salcedo seems to be like everyone drafted in this round, a high risk, high reward prospect. The Braves Director of International Scouting and Operations spoke highly of Salcedo and at 18 he’s got plenty of time to develop on the Walnuts farm.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Hanley Ramirez
Worst Case: Elian Gonzales
Pick Analysis: Reach?

40) Carlos Perez- C- TOR- Bombers

Perez is just 19 years old and his writeup starts off with the dreaded “stands out most with his defensive skills” but as you look on that isn’t a detriment to his offensive skill set. Perez has shown the ability to hit for a good average as a 17 and 18 year old in the minors and has the body to hit for power in time. He’ll be an interesting player to follow over the next few years.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Russel Martin (when he was good)
Worst Case: Jason Kendell (when he sucked, aka most of his career)
Pick Analysis: Solid

41) Marcel Ozuna- OF- FLA- Bombers

A potential 5 tooler Ozuna is reminicent of a young Vlad. He is a bad baller hitter and handles off speed pitches well. Ozuna is a good athlete who should be able to swipe some bases once he figures out that part of his game. I was high on Ozuna and was planning on taking him with my next pick until Uustal scooped him up.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Vlad Guerrero
Worst Case: Pablo Ozunaa
Pick Analysis: Good

42) Ryan Wheeler- 1B- ARI- Quahogs

In ’09 Wheeler lead the Northwestern league in OBP and OPS. He’s got a balanced swing and goes the other way well. He reminds scouts of Joey Votto and the Quahogs like that comparison. Wheeler was a hitter that I figured would go in the late 3rd/ Early 4th so I was glad to grab him down here. He’s more polished then some of the players that went before him but his upside probably isnt as high.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Derrek Lee
Worst Case: Erubiel Durazo
Pick Analysis: Good

43) Fabio Martinez- SP- ANA- The team formerly known as the Blind Dogs

Fabio has an electric fastball that maintains it’s velocity deep into ball games. He has a projectable frame and Tom Tom is hoping that he’ll develop those secondary pitches to remain a starter as he gets closer to the bigs. To me he looks like a reliever, which isnt always a bad thing, he seems to have the stuff to becoming a dominant closer one day.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Fausto Carmona (in his good year)
Worst Case: Daniel Cabrera
Pick Analysis: Solid

44) Simon Castro- SP- SD- Anchormen

A “true swing and miss” fastball and a great work ethic lead Castro to a huge improvement between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. He lead the Midwest league in Strikeouts in 09 and also pitched a 7 inning no hitter. After talking him up so much BA goes on to project him as a #3 starter. They seem to do this alot where they talk a guy up big time than slap the dreaded #3 starter tag on him. From the looks of Castro and his stuff I think Billy got great value at this point of the draft.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Josh Johnson
Worst Case: Juan Guzman
Pick Analysis: Good work

45) Matt Davidson- 3B- ARI- Pandas

This chaunce looking prospect has plus-plus raw power which you love to see on any writeup, another thing you love to see? Matt Williams comparison. Davidson has both of those plusses but he is a poor runner, poor defender and has shown contact issues. If he can live up to his power potential and figure out how to man the hot corner AZ and the Pandas could have a nice problem on their hands with both Davidson and Borchering coming through the system at 3rd.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Matt Williams
Worst Case: Russ Branyan (before last season)
Pick Analysis: Good

46) Nolan Arenado- 3B- COL- Quahogs

Only having picks in the 4th and 5th round, Arenado was right near the top of the Quahogs draft board and they were pumped to get him with this pick. At 18 Arenado has shown an advanced approach at the plate, he has a smooth, balanced swing, good plate discipline and hits well to all fields. He projects to have at least average power and should turn into at least an average regular at 3rd.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Evan Longoria
Worst Case: Tim Naehring
Pick Analysis: Good

47) Kentrail Davis- OF- MIL- Brew Crew

He’s 5’9 195 and he can hit and run. Kentrail has drawn comparisons to Kriby Puckett and if he comes anywhere close to that then Brad has the steal of the draft. His draft stock was hurt by a poor sophomore season in college but Davis has the potential to be a 20-20 man in the bigs and with Brad’s history he probably will.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Kirby Puckett with good eyes
Worst Case: Donnie Sadler
Pick Analysis: Nice value

48) Daniel Fields- SS- DET- Carbombs

His dad played briefly in the bigs and at age 12 he parked one with a wooden bat. He doesnt seem to have 1 outstanding skill but is solid in every facet of the game. He has a great attitude and makeup. If he sticks at short stop he seems like he’ll be a valuable fantasy commodity, if he moves elsewhere his stock will probably drop.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Derek Jeter
Worst Case: Alex Cora
Pick Analysis: Good