Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Jurickson Profar 2) Nolan Arenado 3) Miguel Sano
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Taijuan Walker, 2) Jameson Taillon, 3) Gerritt Cole
2012 Stock Rising: Christian Yelich - Doesn't get much pub but hit 312 with 15 hrs 77 rbis 32 sbs.
2012 Stock Falling: Martin Perez - Still only 21 in AAA but hes a fly ball pitcher headed to a hitters park.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 2 Profar, 5 to 1 Sano, 40 to 1 Sanchez, 100 to 1 Walker
The Carbombs were in the playoffs as recently as 2010, yet boast the league's top farm system - and its not close. How did this happen? Mostly from these three simple trades:
1) Mark Teixeira to the Walnuts for Taillon, Perez, Freeman
2) David Wright to the Monsters for Montero, Sano, Profar
3) Nelson Cruuuuz to the Quahogs for Arenado
Good young hitters are nearly impossible to trade for in the NKFBL and the Carbombs have put together a small army of them through good drafting and trades. With a minor league system rolling 45 deep the Carbombs can sit back and hope guys like Tavaras and Guzman breakout and live up to their potential.
2) Rampage
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Manny Machado, 2) Bubba Starling, 3) Josh Bell
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Dylan Bundy, 2) Jarrod Parker, 3) Noah Syndergard
2012 Stock Rising: Jorge Alfaro - He only walked 5 times in 172 AB’s last yr but hit 300 as an 18 yr old
2012 Stock Falling: Nick Castellanos - The 23% K rate is concerning and he needs to show more power (7 HRs in 2011).
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Machado, 5 to 1 Bundy, 20 to 1 Starling, 1000 to 1 Hechavarria
Ranking team 2 through 5 on this list was close to impossible since it depends largely on what you value. The Bombers/Whales own a top 3 prospect but lack the depth of the Rampage/Pigeons. Ultimately I sided with the depth because even the top 1% prospects carry some risk. The Rampage, as painful as it is to admit, have some very good prospects due to yet another draft full with first round prospect picks.
Dylan Bundy has only pitched 6 innings, but has yet to give up a hit or walk and has K’d 12. He should move quickly and he could end the year as the best pitching prospect in the minors. Most of the Rampage hitters should take a while to develop but Machado could be playing SS or 3B in the majors sometime in 2013. By 2014 the Rampage will be a long long way from the team that kept Polanco, McDonald, KRod and Ibanez this past year.
3) Pigeons
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Javier Baez, 2) Michael Choice, 3) Rymer Liriano
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Casey Kelly, 2) Randall Delgado, 3) Daniel Norris
2012 Stock Rising: Casey Kelly - Small sample but 14 K’s to 0 walks in 2012. Still only 22 and will get to pitch in PETCO.
2012 Stock Falling: Jacob Turner - Shoulder problems and a low K9 (7.13 in 113 IP) have lowered expectations..
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Baez, 5 to 1 Choice, 30 to 1 Liriano, 50 to 1 Cuthbert
Two years ago I ranked NKFBL farm systems and the Pigeons were dead last. In a short time Yole has turned things around for the Pigeons and turned in a very successful draft in March. Baez, Marisnick, Liriano, Rosario and Akins (Stanton comps) are all toolsy high upside hitters that have the potential to turn into strong Pigeon keepers or great trade chips.
Yole/Sully have already put together a solid pitching staff that includes Price, Romero and Beachy. Casey Kelly in the near term and Daniel Norris in the future should be able to join that group. In a loaded Toronto Blue Jays system Norris stands out as a lefty with an easy delivery, four average to plus pitches and great makeup.
4) Whales
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Bryce Harper, 2) Anthony Rendon, 3) Anthony Rizzo
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Tyler Skaggs, 2) Zach Wheeler, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: Garrin Cecchini - Injury shortened 2011 he had a slash of 298/398/500 at Single A Lowell
2012 Stock Falling: Tyler Matzek - Former 1st rd prospect pick had a disastrous 2011 with 96 walks in 97 innings.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 2 Rendon, 5 to 1 Skaggs, 50 to 1 Wheeler, 350 to 1 Sale
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Bryce Harper, 2) Anthony Rendon, 3) Anthony Rizzo
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Tyler Skaggs, 2) Zach Wheeler, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: Garrin Cecchini - Injury shortened 2011 he had a slash of 298/398/500 at Single A Lowell
2012 Stock Falling: Tyler Matzek - Former 1st rd prospect pick had a disastrous 2011 with 96 walks in 97 innings.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 2 Rendon, 5 to 1 Skaggs, 50 to 1 Wheeler, 350 to 1 Sale
Whales owner Eamonn Hartnett showed up at last years prospect draft with a fresh suit and unopened prospect book. Clearly unprepared it’s pretty impressive that he walked away with Skaggs in the 4th and Cecchini in the 5th round. Despite good late picks the Whales farm system is still very top heavy. Harper could make a Griffey like debut at some point this season and Rendon, despite a fractured ankle this week, should have a long productive career.
Once Harper hits the big leagues the Whales farm system will fall back down into the bottom 4. There is a long list of picks that just didn't pan out (Sanchez, Matzek, Antonelli, Dominguez, Oliver - too many to name). The effects of poor drafting and wasted picks are a shallow group of prospects and minimal MLB talent. The Ballers need to to decide on a direction for this team quick or risk drafting in the top 3 for years and years to come.
5) Bombers
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Mike Trout, 2) Ariel Ovando, 3) Guillermo Pimentel
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Shelby Miller, 2) Archie Bradley, 3) AJ Cole
2012 Stock Rising: AJ Cole - Didnt have any problem in his first season: 11 K9, good control and a 2.53 FIP
2012 Stock Falling: Michael Ynoa - Only 20 but he signed in ‘08 but has only pitched 9 innings because of injuries.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 2 to 1 Miller, 4 to 1 Bradley, 100 to 1 Cole, 200 to 1 Lee
Unlike many of the successful teams in the NKFBL, the Bombers have avoided negotiating with terrorists like Pearce and the Rampage and held onto their 1st rd prospect picks. Archie Bradley.will look to continue an impressive streak of 1st rounders.
2008 - 1st - Jarrod Parker, Jason Heyward
2009 - 1st - Buster Posey
2010 - 1st - Shelby Miller
2011 - 1st - Zach Lee
Overall the Bombers current system isn't as deep as the previous four with only one impact hitter and four top pitching prospects. I can imagine Uustal couldn't care less about this fact since the Bombers have not only the best team in the league but one of the youngest (12 keepers 28 or under). Be prepared to be depressed by this list:
22 yrs old - Heyward
24 yrs old - JUpton, Kershaw
25 yrs old - Posey, Butler, Felix
27 yrs old - Tulo, BUpton
28 yrs old - Pedroia, Markakis, Ubaldo, Votto
6) Walnuts
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Wil Myers, 2) Xander Bogaerts, 3) Jonathan Singleton
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Taylor Guerreri, 2) Jake Odorizzi, 3) Johnny Hellweg
2012 Stock Rising: Jorge Bonifacio - Emilios brother had an 825 OPS as an 18 yr old, 1031 OPS to start 2012
2012 Stock Falling: Jake Odorizzi - Inconsistent stuff and hr problems (17 in 2011) make his upside Gavin Floyd.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Myers, 8 to 1 Bogaerts, 15 to 1 Singleton, 150 to 1 Hernandez
Similar to the Red Sox farm system the Nuts have alot of interesting names but no marquee prospect. Wil Myers stock took a slight hit in an injury plagued 2011 season and Xander Bogaerts will have to prove that he can hit for power and average. Newly drafted names like Elier Hernandez, Dan Vogelbach and Jairo Beras have tons of buzz but are all big projects that will take north of 4 years. It was easily the teams riskiest draft to date but similar to the lottery you can’t win if you dont play. The Nuts will hope some of the picks turn into future keepers or part of a playoff push deadline deal.
7) Anchormen
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Gary Brown, 2) Mike Olt, 3) Blake Swihart
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Trevor Bauer, 2) Danny Hultzen, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: Blake Swihart - BA gave him a Wil Myers comp, 5 walks in first 6 pro games
2012 Stock Falling: Yonder Alonso - Average power moving to PETCO kills alot of his fantasy upside.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Brown, 20 to 1 Hultzen, 60 to 1 Swihart, 100 to 1 Marte
“Fast, power, graceful athlete”. No that's not Bill describing Eamonn, but instead his pre draft description of Starling Marte. At this point most of us read the same prospect writeups and see the same lists, yet Bill manages to view players wildly differently than the rest of the league. The Azorian draft plan could be characterized as the bizarro Nuts draft. Instead of picking 16 yr old dominicans with multiple birth certificates Bill went with his usual modest ceiling, high floor draft plan. Marte, Olt, Bauer and Hultzen fit that plan to a tee and many fellow league members most likely had Bill pegged for them after one read of the Bible. Brown and Swihart were outliers and definitely have some major upside if things come together.
Similar to the Whales I couldn't tell you what direction the Anchormen are going. They have interesting some interesting MLB players surrounded by AL/NL only players like Brent Morel and Jordan Lyles. Only the Anchormen know where their going and they sure hope it leads them past the elusive 500 mark.
8) Brew Crew
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) George Springer, 2) Mason Williams, 3) Brett Jackson
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Drew Pomeranz, 2) James Paxton, 3) Matt Harvey
2012 Stock Rising: James Paxton - Strong 2011 that included 131 K’s in 95 innings. Has a 0.87 era to start 2012.
2012 Stock Falling: Stetson Allie - 2011 2nd rd prospect pick likely a bust, cant buy a strike with 33 walks in 26 pro innings.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Springer, 5 to 1 Paxton, 15 to 1 Williams, 400 to 1 Cowart
The defending champs come in at number 8 on the list with a number of potential 5 tool outfielders and solid pitching prospects. I’m probably too low on this team but I’m not a fan of two of the players you see on many top 100 lists: d’Arnaud and Jackson. Both have strikeout problems that could/should be exposed even more when they get to the majors. Jackson in particular has a K rate close to 30% as a 23 yr old in AAA. He should be a productive player but not the star that alot of people projected him to be.
The Brew Crew don’t have many holes but could use some pitching depth considering they have Chris Capuano currently warming the bench. Drew Pomeranz should fill that hole and be an impact player for the Brew Crew in 2012. I fully expect him to surplant Johan in the Crew’s rotation and become a potential weekly contributor. It’s also very possible that Paxton could reach the majors considering the Mariners are starting Millwood/Noesi/Vargas on a weekly basis. Overall the pitching and hitting prospects are all luxuries for a team that is very strong top to bottom.
9) Quahogs
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Matt Szcur, 2) Billy Hamilton, 3) Max Kepler
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Carlos Martinez, 2) Julio Teheran, 3) Mike Montgomery
2012 Stock Rising: Enny Romero - His control has become a problem but he has upside that matches Pat’s other pitchers.
2012 Stock Falling: Mike Montgomery - Things fell apart in AAA during 2011 where his K rate fell and ERA was over 5.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Martinez, 4 to 1 Teheran, 200 to 1 Hamilton, 500 to 1 Szcur
The Hog’s farm system would look alot better with Nolan Arenado in it but the team needed Nelson Cruz to weather a number of preseason injuries. Instead pitchers Carlos Martinez (fastball touches 100) and Julio Teheran (reached the majors at 20) lead the farm system and could both develop into strong keepers for Pat in the near future. Whats less promising is the number of failed dominicans littering the teams 25 deep prospect system. Former promising prospects such as Michael Almanzar, Engel Beltre, Jose Martinez and Rafael Rodriguez illustrate the huge risk people take in drafting young scouting report only stars.
Similar to the Brew Crew, the Hogs have a strong major league roster and dont need to rely on the development of any of these prospects. It’s likely that Carlos Martinez and possible others will meet the same fate of Arenado, Moustakas and other top prospects and be dealt at the deadline in Pats quest to take home his first NKFBL title.
10) Monsters
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Brian Goodwin, 2) Slade Heathcott, 3) Levon Washington
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) Joe Ross, 2) Luis Heredia, 3) Anthony Ranaudo
2012 Stock Rising: Brian Goodwin - See NKFBL chat room. 375/524/813 with a 2 hrs and 2 sbs in his first 5 pro games.
2012 Stock Falling: Anthony Ranaudo - The 22 yr old Red Sox 1st Rd pick had a less than dominating debut in A ball (ERA of 4).
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 5 to 1 Goodwin, 10 to 1 Ross, 300 to 1 Heredia
When you graduate Hosmer/Stanton/Santana and trade Montero/Profar/Sano, impact players in your farm system are bound to be few and far between. The Monsters are very thin in prospects with even their top guys Joe Ross and Brian Goodwin rankings based on scouting reports instead of pro data. It’s hard to find any people still excited about Tim Beckham, Michael Taylor or NKFBL legend Ethan Martin but theres always the small chance things could click for one of those guys.
The Monsters are a long long way from the debacle that was The Names franchise. KOB has turned the laughing stock in the league into a potential yearly playoff contender in short time. As good as the roster is there are still holes (See Wells, Vernon) and KOB will need to use trades, pickups and the MLB draft instead of his farm system to fill them.
11) Pandas
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Domingo Santana, 2) Matt Davidson, 3) Kyle Parker
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) None, 2) None, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: Juan Duran - 6’7” Duran had his best season to date hitting 264 with 17 hrs, both career highs..
2012 Stock Falling: Bobby Borchering - The strikeouts are out of control - 162 in 135 games last season .
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 3 to 1 Santana, 8 to 1 Davidson, 75 to 1 Parker, 400 to 1 Duran
Even the Pandas owner is probably surprised to know his team didnt register last on this list. Heard commonly saying “prospects are for the birds”, the Pandas organization is firmly against waiting for prospects to develop. This strategy has helped them get many of the reliable steady players on their roster today, while also burning them with players such as Kemp, Pedroia and most recently Justin Upton.
It’s hard not to yawn when you see the list of the players that remain in the Pandas system. All three top hitting prospects are interesting but far from sure things. Domingo Santana may stand the best chance of wearing a pandas jesery someday. In 17 games after his trade from the Phillies to the Astros he hit 382 with 5 hrs and a respectable 6 to 15 bb to k ratio. It might not be much but for the Pandas its all they got.
12) Benders
Top 3 Hitting Prospects: 1) Willin Rosario, 2) Jean Segura, 3) James Darnell
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) None, 2) None, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: None
2012 Stock Falling: Jean Seguar - OPS has fallen from 909 to 829 to 787.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 2 to 1 Segura, 10 to 1 Darnell, 100 to 1 Mejia, 1000 to 1 Flores
Top 3 Pitching Prospects: 1) None, 2) None, 3) None
2012 Stock Rising: None
2012 Stock Falling: Jean Seguar - OPS has fallen from 909 to 829 to 787.
Odds of being teams 2013 #1 Prospect: 2 to 1 Segura, 10 to 1 Darnell, 100 to 1 Mejia, 1000 to 1 Flores
The Benders are a popular sleeper pick this season with an offense full of steady vets and a pitching staff as deep as any in the league. Don’t look at the farm system to provide any additional support. Willin Rosario broke camp in the majors but has yet to secure everyday abs and many of the other prospects simply arent prospects anymore. To be fair, the Benders did have Christian Yelich before dealing him to the Carbombs in a Matt Holliday trade before the season.
It was surprising to me to see the Benders rank last since I always thought of the Pandas owning this spot permanently. However, its fair to wonder the plan/direction this team is headed. Could the Benders streak into the playoffs this year? Sure. Next year? Sure. The team is built to win now and similar to the Pandas will worry about tomorrow...tomorrow.
