System Rankings #5 - Blind Dogs

By John Radzinski

The funny thing about prospects are that they work a lot like movie sequels: more isn’t necessarily better. That’s the case with our #5 team, the ever loveable Blind Dogs.

Had the Blind Dogs kept their prospects, we would be looking at the #1 system bar-none. After an unlucky 2007 draft that included, Chris Young, Josh Fields, Philip Humber, Kory Casto, Brandon Erbe, Lance Broadaway, etc, essentially no one productive, GM Tom Duggan learned from his mistakes in years past. TomTom’s ’09 draft class included: Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham, Carlos Santana, Alicedes Escobar, and Brett Cecil. Of course his trade-happy management style means nearly none of those stud prospects are still in town, but that’s a whole other article for another day.

By trading prospects for present talent, the Blind Dogs are hoping to become the next Walnuts: A cellar-dweller one year, playoff contender the next. With a lot of luck, they could get close to .500/respectability in 2010. Youklis, Uggla, Figgins, and Drew are a pretty decent infield if Drew can revert back to his 2008 form. You know what you’re getting from the other three. The outfield got remarkably better when they acquired long-time Quahog, Carl Crawford. Of course Crawford is 29, which on the Quahogs is clearly too old. Might as well retire. After Crawford however, things get dicey. Former top prospect, Jay Bruce was up and down last season, ultimately ending with (the good) 22 homeruns and (the bad) .226 avg. After taking a brief leave of absence to clear his head, Read: Smoke Weed/take steroids, Bruce returned in the final month to hit .346 and hit four homeruns, a possible sign of things to come. CBS is projecting that he hits .250 and blasts 30 homers. That seems like a fair projection, but put me under the “have to see it to believe it,” camp.

Another former top OF, Alex Rios looks finished. But if he can revert back to his old self, suddenly the OF grouping looks above average as well. The utility spots on the other hand don’t look so hot with former highly touted prospects Frenchie, Lastings Milledge, and former 2nd round prospect pick, Chris Young.

Luckily for the Dogs, help may be on the way in the form of Pedro Alvarez. Going into last season, no one really knew where to rank this kid. For some people he was as high as number 3, others had him outside the top 20. This kind of disparity seemed justified when Alvarez got off to a very disappointing start in single-A last season. But after a promotion to AA, Alvarez went off, especially in the second half when he hit .370, pelted 9 homeruns, and knocked in 30 RBI. Most impressively he slugged .618 and had an OBP of .469. It’s awfully tough not to like those numbers, which is why the Pirates will be looking to promote him from AAA Indianapolis to AAAA Pittsburgh. Right now the only thing standing in his way is former prospect Andy LaRoche, so essentially there’s nothing in Alvarez’ way besides time.

Another big bopper could be on the way in the form of Juan Francisco. He’s been on the trading block as the Dogs are looking for a piece that could help them now, but Francisco has some talent of his own. He’s decidedly Cincinnati’s best power hitter, but his lack of patience and k-rate are a little scary. If he can manage to become just a little more patient and hit for a better average he could one day become a fantasy force.

On the pitching side the Dogs’ rotation features Adam Wainwright, who was traded from the Bombers in a deal involving Roger Clemens, whomp. After that, the rotation is iffy at best. If you read me the SIX remaining starters on the roster, my reaction would be, “yeah, those are certainly pitchers.” If Ben Sheets can come back to form a la Rich Harden, and Johnny Cueto can manage to throw the ball over the plate, the Dogs’ rotation could be in good shape. But relying on Ben Sheets is like relying on a Toyota (topical humor).

On the farm though, TomTom has perhaps the nastiest pitcher in the big leagues ready to make an impact in Neftali Feliz. What Alvarez is to the offense, Feliz is to the rotation, but perhaps even higher upside. Last season he made major leaguers look silly. In terms of excitement, Feliz is off the charts. The only real question is will he pitch in the ‘pen or start, and if he does start, how much can you honestly expect from him? I’m thinking in the ballpark of about 150 innings.

Also on the farm is Jake McGee. He’s still a prospect? He seems like he’s been around forever. Well he has. He’ll be 24 this season and he’s already had Tommy John surgery, which is becoming more of a right of passage these days than major reconstructive surgery, so much so, we all know who Dr. James Andrews is. Anyway, McGee could be a candidate to fill in for the Rays for someone who hits the DL, or could be interesting trade bait for another team. Regardless, he’s done nothing to really lose his status as a top pitching prospect and if he gets a chance, he could prove to be a surprise.

After those four, the farm system really drops off. Gaby Sanchez will likely get up soon, but it appears unlikely that he’ll make a big impact. Carlos Truinfel was previously the #1 player in Seattle’s list of prospects. Now however, he barely cracks the top-10. A broken leg inhibited his growth, but some scouts still hold out hope that he can be a dual threat of some pop and speed. He’s still only 18 and I think he’s still got a lot of room to grow and improve. Gotta see the glass half full on players like him.

All in all the 1-2 punch of Alvarez and Feliz has Dogs fans hoping for a bright future. If things roll their way, they could be competing for a playoff spot as soon as next season. My prediction: Both are traded.

Top 5 Prospects:
1. Neftali Feliz
2. Pedro Alvarez
3. Jake McGee
4. Juan Francisco
5. Carlos Triunfel

Top 5 Graduated Prospects:
1. Gordon Beckham SS Rd. 1 2009
2. Chris Tillman Rd 6 Sup. 2008
3. Jonny Cueto Rd 1 2008
4. Matt Latos Rd 4 2008
5. Brett Cecil SP Rd. 4 2009