Wednesday, March 31, 2010

2010 Round 5 Review

By Pat Henderson

49) Jurickson Profar- SS- TEX- Monsters


KOB started off the 5th round with the talented 16 year old Profar, much to Uustal’s chagrin. The thing that sets Profar appart from most other super young prospects is his advanced approach. He shows patients at the plate and a great attitude and work ethic. He should be a plus defender and puts the bat on the ball. Profar is still very young but he looks like great value here.

ETA: 2016
Best Case: Cal Ripken (minus the games streak)
Worst Case: Mike Bordic
Pick Analysis: Potential Steal

50) Guillermo Pimentel- OF- SEA- Bombers

With the pick that Uustal was planning on using for Profar, he added the powerful Pimentel to the Bomb squad. Pimentel shows immense power potential, grading a 70 on the 20-80 scale. He’s got a lightning quick bat but also has a lot of negatives. Granted he is only 17 but Pimentel is very impatient at the plate and doesnt hit much besides fastballs. He tends to be very pull heavy and will need to learn to go the other way and lay off a pitch or two if he is ever going to realize his potential. It’s a lot of ifs but at 17 he’s got some time to iron out the wrinkles in his game.

ETA: 2017 (that sounds like a year from a science fiction movie)
Best Case: A left handed Gary Shefield
Worst Case: (and probable case) Willy-Mo Pena
Pick Analysis: Stretch

51) Max Stassi- C- OAK- Quahogs

Stassi “appears to be the closest thing to a sure bet as a high schooler can be”. He has a strong balenced swing and hits to all fields. He looks like he’s got the game to stick at catcher and the Quahogs are hoping that he can be the eventual replacement to V-Mart at catcher, but it looks to be a few years down the road since he’s only 18.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Pudge Rodriguez
Worst Case: Scott Hatteburg
Pick Analysis: Good

52) Max Kepler- OF- MIN- Quahogs

The Quahogs used their 2nd of 3 consecutive picks to snag the 16 year old German, Kepler. Kepler is a potential 5 tool player who is already a great athlete. The son of ballet dancers (I didn't know male ballet dancers had kids) is a plus runner, hits the ball with authority and covers good ground in the outfield. He’s trying to become the first ever German major leaguer and the quahogs are hoping that he can become a successful one. It’s tough to tell with toolsy 16 year olds and most of them don't ever get heard from again but in the 5th round its worth the risk.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Reggie Sanders
Worst Case: Delmon Van Youngstein
Pick Analysis: Good

53) Thomas Neal- OF- SF- Quahogs

The Quahogs used their 3rd pick in the 5th round to take the “unsexy” Thomas Neal. Neal is 22 years old which is on the ancient end of Quahogs prospects but he’s proven himself in the minors and looks to have some upside. He had a huge year in High A last year going .337 22 HR 90 RBI and an OBP of .431. He’s got a strong arm in the outfield and his patient approach and power swing will hopefully translate to a good every day major leaguer.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Raul Ibanez
Worst Case: Fred Lewis
Pick Analysis: Solid

54) Tony Sanchez- C- PIT- Ballers

The former BC Eagle looks like a sure bet to make the big leagues. He’s an excellent defensive catcher and swings a solid stick. He hit over .300 last year and he should develop at least average power. He doesnt have as much upside as some of the picks in this round but like Neal he looks to be more of a sure thing.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Jason Kendell (when he was good)
Worst Case: Jason Kendell (after he was good)
Pick Analysis: Good

55) Zach Britton- SP- BAL- Smoke Monsters

Britton looks like a prototypical sinker/slider pitcher and a sure bet to be a solid MLB starter. He has solid velocity for a sinker baller, hitting 94, but usually sitting in the 88-92 range. Baltimore has a ton of pitching prospects as was evident by Tillman getting sent back to AAA to start the season so it looks like Britton’s path might be blocked for now, but he’ll be pitching for the O’s sooner rather than later. In a round littered with high risk, high reward players KOB snagged what looks like a sure thing.

ETA: 2010
Best Case: Derrek Lowe
Worst Case: Carlos Silva
Pick Analysis: Good value

56) Jiwan James- OF- PHI- Carbombs

Brendan thought that James was a dead ringer to be picked by the Quahogs but surprisingly I didnt have him on my list. James is one of the toolsiest of the toolsy prospects. James has upside but he seems a long way off from realizing it. He started off as a pitcher until injuries side tracked that promising career (7.71 ERA in 2007). James is only 20 years old but has shown a history of injuries and is very raw, there were plenty of toolsy guys left that seemed to have more of a shot of hitting the bigs, James seems to be more of an athlete than a baseball player, I think he was a reach here.

ETA: 3055
Best Case: Felix Pie
Worst Case: Bruce Jenner
Pick Analysis: Stretch

57) Grant Greene- SS- OAK- Walnuts

The pre-draft rumor mill was sending Green to Lester in the 1st round which I thought woulda been the worst pick since Jason Hirsh and then he went for Hechavarria. I dont mind the Green pick at the end of the 5th round but I’m not a huge fan of him as a prospect. He doesnt look like he’ll stick at short long term with questionable defensive ability already and scouts are sold on his bat. He’s 21 and spent last year in High A so he still looks a few years off from the bigs.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: John Valentine
Worst Case: Bobby Crosby
Pick Analysis: Not a reach

58) Chad James- SP- FLA- Quahogs

James was decently high on my draft list so I was pleased to get him with the 3rd to last pick of the draft. James has good velocity for a lefty, sitting in the 91-92 range and hitting 95. He’s got a curveball that can be a plus and a good attitude to go along with it. Hopefully James will develop a little better than former Marlins lefty and Quahog Andrew Miller.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Steve Avery
Worst Case: Andrew Miller (so far)
Pick Analysis: Good

59) Everett Williams- OF- SD- Brew Crew

Williams is a raw athlete with serious pop. He comes from a family of athletes and once hit a 500 foot bomb. He was one of the top prep hitters coming out in 2009 and looks like he could become a successful major leaguer if he can learn some patients. I like this pick better than the Jiwan James one because although he is a high risk, high reward toolsly player he seems to have more of a shot of reaching his lofty upside or at least some of it than James.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Carl Everett (one that believes in Dinosaurs)
Worst Case: Elijah Dukes (one that doesnt threaten his wife’s life)
Pick Analysis:
Better Pick:

60) Jason Knapp- SP- CLE- Carbombs

I figured Knapp would scoop up his name sake in last years draft when he pretty much had the whole 5th round, but he picked Westmoreland instead, I guess he made the right decision. Knapp seems to be a classic bullpen arm with an explosive fastball and a good, but inconsistent curveball. Developing his change up seems to be what will make the difference between him ending up in the rotation or the bull pen. I think he’ll wind up as a strong set up man or closer, as the last pick in the draft the last name alone makes it a worth while pick.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Billy Kotch
Worst Case: Andrew Knapp
Pick Analysis: Good

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Round 4 Review

By Pat Henderson

(I got rid of the Better Pick because it’s all a grab bag down in this part of the draft)

37) Gary Sanchez- C- NYY- Carbombs

Knapp scooped up the 17 year old to begin the 4th round and got a potential star. The Yanks inked Sanchez with the 3rd largest signing bonus for an INT teen (behind Inoa and Sano) and the 4th largest signing bonus in Yanks history. Sanchez seems to have the tools to stick at catcher and with power that rates out to a 60 on the 20-80 scale he looks to have the skill set to be a fantasy stud. He is however 17 years old and will have a long way to go in terms of years and development until he’s sitting atop the Carbombs roster.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Victor Martinez
Worst Case: JD Closser
Pick Analysis: Good upside for pick position

38) Randall Delgado- SP- ATL- Pigeons

Sully’s good drafted contined grabbing the high upside Delgado in the 4th. Delgado is the classic big arm prospect, he’s got good, potentially great stuff but his control struggles. He seemed to put it together somewhat in the 2nd half of last year and finished the season with more strikeouts than innings pitched. Developing the curve, change and control will be the determine how far Delgado can go.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Ublado Jiminez
Worst Case: Jesus Colome
Pick Analysis: Good

39) Edward Salcedo- SS- ATL- Walnuts

Who is Edward Salcedo? Call me a international nub but I didnt recognize this name when he came off the board in the 4th. Salcedo seems to be like everyone drafted in this round, a high risk, high reward prospect. The Braves Director of International Scouting and Operations spoke highly of Salcedo and at 18 he’s got plenty of time to develop on the Walnuts farm.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Hanley Ramirez
Worst Case: Elian Gonzales
Pick Analysis: Reach?

40) Carlos Perez- C- TOR- Bombers

Perez is just 19 years old and his writeup starts off with the dreaded “stands out most with his defensive skills” but as you look on that isn’t a detriment to his offensive skill set. Perez has shown the ability to hit for a good average as a 17 and 18 year old in the minors and has the body to hit for power in time. He’ll be an interesting player to follow over the next few years.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Russel Martin (when he was good)
Worst Case: Jason Kendell (when he sucked, aka most of his career)
Pick Analysis: Solid

41) Marcel Ozuna- OF- FLA- Bombers

A potential 5 tooler Ozuna is reminicent of a young Vlad. He is a bad baller hitter and handles off speed pitches well. Ozuna is a good athlete who should be able to swipe some bases once he figures out that part of his game. I was high on Ozuna and was planning on taking him with my next pick until Uustal scooped him up.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Vlad Guerrero
Worst Case: Pablo Ozunaa
Pick Analysis: Good

42) Ryan Wheeler- 1B- ARI- Quahogs

In ’09 Wheeler lead the Northwestern league in OBP and OPS. He’s got a balanced swing and goes the other way well. He reminds scouts of Joey Votto and the Quahogs like that comparison. Wheeler was a hitter that I figured would go in the late 3rd/ Early 4th so I was glad to grab him down here. He’s more polished then some of the players that went before him but his upside probably isnt as high.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Derrek Lee
Worst Case: Erubiel Durazo
Pick Analysis: Good

43) Fabio Martinez- SP- ANA- The team formerly known as the Blind Dogs

Fabio has an electric fastball that maintains it’s velocity deep into ball games. He has a projectable frame and Tom Tom is hoping that he’ll develop those secondary pitches to remain a starter as he gets closer to the bigs. To me he looks like a reliever, which isnt always a bad thing, he seems to have the stuff to becoming a dominant closer one day.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Fausto Carmona (in his good year)
Worst Case: Daniel Cabrera
Pick Analysis: Solid

44) Simon Castro- SP- SD- Anchormen

A “true swing and miss” fastball and a great work ethic lead Castro to a huge improvement between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. He lead the Midwest league in Strikeouts in 09 and also pitched a 7 inning no hitter. After talking him up so much BA goes on to project him as a #3 starter. They seem to do this alot where they talk a guy up big time than slap the dreaded #3 starter tag on him. From the looks of Castro and his stuff I think Billy got great value at this point of the draft.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Josh Johnson
Worst Case: Juan Guzman
Pick Analysis: Good work

45) Matt Davidson- 3B- ARI- Pandas

This chaunce looking prospect has plus-plus raw power which you love to see on any writeup, another thing you love to see? Matt Williams comparison. Davidson has both of those plusses but he is a poor runner, poor defender and has shown contact issues. If he can live up to his power potential and figure out how to man the hot corner AZ and the Pandas could have a nice problem on their hands with both Davidson and Borchering coming through the system at 3rd.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Matt Williams
Worst Case: Russ Branyan (before last season)
Pick Analysis: Good

46) Nolan Arenado- 3B- COL- Quahogs

Only having picks in the 4th and 5th round, Arenado was right near the top of the Quahogs draft board and they were pumped to get him with this pick. At 18 Arenado has shown an advanced approach at the plate, he has a smooth, balanced swing, good plate discipline and hits well to all fields. He projects to have at least average power and should turn into at least an average regular at 3rd.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Evan Longoria
Worst Case: Tim Naehring
Pick Analysis: Good

47) Kentrail Davis- OF- MIL- Brew Crew

He’s 5’9 195 and he can hit and run. Kentrail has drawn comparisons to Kriby Puckett and if he comes anywhere close to that then Brad has the steal of the draft. His draft stock was hurt by a poor sophomore season in college but Davis has the potential to be a 20-20 man in the bigs and with Brad’s history he probably will.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Kirby Puckett with good eyes
Worst Case: Donnie Sadler
Pick Analysis: Nice value

48) Daniel Fields- SS- DET- Carbombs

His dad played briefly in the bigs and at age 12 he parked one with a wooden bat. He doesnt seem to have 1 outstanding skill but is solid in every facet of the game. He has a great attitude and makeup. If he sticks at short stop he seems like he’ll be a valuable fantasy commodity, if he moves elsewhere his stock will probably drop.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Derek Jeter
Worst Case: Alex Cora
Pick Analysis: Good

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Draft Recap 2010 Round 3

By Brendan Hart

25) Slade Heathcott (Monsters) – In the initial power rankings for the 2010 season the Heathcott selection by the Monsters was described as "a little premature at 25th overall". While I agree it was early, I disagree because of the team that drafted him. The Monsters need all the medium/high upside offensive players they can put together in order to assemble any kind of competitive team. Heathcott may not have "superstar" potential but still seems to have the power/speed combo that is desirable for fantasy. Taking a flier on Heathcott was the right move and may even prove to be a steal if he has a solid debut.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Franklin Gutierrez...pause (joke)...Nate McClouth
Worst Case: Darin Erstad
Pick Analysis: Expected/Slight reach
Better Pick: Brett Jackson


26) Aaron Crow (Pigeons) – Did the Pigeons really need another safe pitcher with the 26th overall pick in the draft? The answer is no. Even if Crow hits his "best case" comparison he will not profile as a superstar. Josh Bell is much closer to the majors and is someone that should be picked by a team currently starting Marco Scutaro. Even Mike Trout and Dee Gordon would have been high upside offensive players to draft in this position. Look for Pigeons owner Brian Sullivan to trade some of his pitching for bats sometime during the season.

ETA: Late 2010
Best Case: Aaron Cook
Worst Case: Jeremy Guthrie
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: Bell,Trout,Gordon


27) Josh Bell (Anchormen) – In 156 PA last year against LHP Josh Bell hit a measly .193 and slugged .259. Reading those stats would make you think Bell shouldn't be considered prospect relevant, let alone fantasy relevant. That is unless you see that Bell hit .339 against RHP with a slugging percentage over 600. While these numbers scream platoon player if he is not able to improve, they also show that he just needs more time to develop. If he becomes respectable against LHP Bell should develop into a quality 3B that delivers 20-25 hr's annually.

ETA: 2011
Best Case: Casey Blake
Worst Case: Mat Gamel
Pick Analysis: Expected/Slight steal
Better Pick: None


28) Arodys Vizcaino (Brew Crew) – Vizcaino was one of the key pieces of the Yankees Javier Vasquez trade over the summer. Despite being only 19 yrs old reports say he already owns good overall command and a few plus pitches including an AJ Burnett like curve. While he's most likely 4/5 years away from making an impact, he was yet another good pick by The Brad. It is very likely that Vizcaino wouldn't have slipped much further that the 28th pick the Brew Crew used to select him.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Felix Hernandez
Worst Case: Kelvim Escobar
Pick Analysis: Expected/Slight steal
Better Pick: None


29) Brett Jackson (Brew Crew) – The Brew Crew used their second third round pick to add another power/speed outfielder to their farm system. In a short 26 game debut in Low A ball last season Jackson hit 7 hr's and slugged over 500, while also swiping 11 bases. The Cubs and Brew Crew hope that he can build on this while reducing his strikeouts (25% K rate). If he brings everything together he should have a bright future and could turn out to be the first star Cubs homegrown outfield prospect in quite some time.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Reggie Sanders
Worst Case: Mike Cameron
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


30) Jared Mitchell (Anchormen) – Days before the draft we learned that Jared Mitchell would miss the 2010 season due to a spring training injury (Torn tendon in his ankle). The news obviously did not affect the Anchormen who looked past this and chose Mitchell with the 30th overall pick. While Mitchell is obviously a high upside player it is hard to know what effect the injury could have on his greatest asset - his 70 speed. If he makes a full recovery there's a chance that he could develop into a poor man's Carl Crawford and join Andrew McCutchen and Andre Ethier in the Anchormen outfield.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Carl Crawford (Less speed)
Worst Case: Coco Crisp
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: Mike Trout, Dee Gordon


31) James Darnell (Dogs) –In his first full season James Darnell hit 20 hr's and slugged over 500 during 2 stops. He also managed to be the rare prospect who posts close to a 1 to 1 bb/k ratio. With all that said he was a 23 yr old in A ball which means he was putting up the stats he's supposed to put up against younger competition. Moving up to AA this year should tell us alot more about Darnell and what his potential really is. The Bombers liked what they saw and believe that Darnell was worth the gamble with the 31st overall pick. With Alex Gordon continuing to disappoint there's a chance he could develop into the long term third basemen for the Bombers.

ETA: Mid 2010
Best Case: Michael Young (Without the SB's)
Worst Case: Andy LaRoche
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


32) Casey Crosby (Walnuts) – Since the Walnuts original target Arodys Vizcaino was off the board, the team was forced to go with its second choice Casey Crosby. Wickford's pitching starved minor league system was looking to reload after the graduations of Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill. After missing 2008 with Tommy John Surgery Casey Crosby came back very strong and showed a fastball and curveball that led to Clayton Kershaw comparisons. The Walnuts just hope that one or more of Perez, Moore, and Crosby end up living up to expectations and turning into keepers.

ETA: 2011
Best Case: Clayton Kershaw
Worst Case: Injuries force him to become a RP.
Pick Analysis: Slight reach
Better Pick: None


33) Dee Gordon (Walnuts) – The Walnuts veered away from their conservative prospect draft strategy for the first time in the 2010 draft with their selection of Dee Gordon. Simply put Dee Gordon is the definition of high ceiling/low floor. At 21 he is old for a prospect playing A ball and his 756 OPS means that he didn't light the league on fire. With all that said though Dee Gordon has speed that puts him in the class of Desmond Jennings and Jose Reyes. That speed (73 SB's) and the fact that he is fairly new to baseball lead people to think that Gordon has the upside of an All Star SS. If he show's in 2010 he can hit, Gordon will probably be the Dodgers and Walnuts SS in 2011/2012. If he doesn't hit he'll probably be a utility player for the Dodgers and a wavier wire addition for some team in need of steals.

ETA: Late 2012
Best Case: Jose Reyes (Less power)
Worst Case: Carlos Gomez of the infield.
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


34) Mike Trout (Bombers) – Unlike Brett Jackson, Mike Trout did not show power in his MLB debut. Scouting reports seemed mixed towards whether he will develop more than 10-12 hr power in the future despite holding the NJ high school hr record. If the power doesn't materialize his fantasy value will likely rely on average and speed. For now Trout joins Ryan Westmorland and Fernando Martinez as high upside outfielders in the Bombers farm system.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Torri Hunter
Worst Case: Aaron Rowand
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


35) Wilson Ramos (Dogs) – A catcher in the Twins organization not named Mauer? On the day Joe Mauer signed an massive $184 Million extension with the Twins the Dogs drafted minor league backstop Wilson Ramos with a 3rd round pick. Ramos wasn't on my draft board or possibly many others entering the 2010 draft due most teams being set at the Catcher position. I feel its safe to say that the Dogs could have waited and taken him later if they so desired. Baring an injury or a trade Ramos will not have value in the near future despite possessing the upside of a Miguel Montero type player.

ETA: 2010 (Likely wont be full time until 2012 or later)
Best Case: Miguel Montero
Worst Case: Carlos Ruiz
Pick Analysis: Reach
Better Pick: Ryan Wheeler, Matt Davidson


36) Chris Withrow (Carbombs) – The Carbombs did a good job of picking up another high upside arm in Chris Withrow. The Dodgers success developing starting pitchers such as Kershaw and Billingsley gives reason to believe that Withrow will have every chance to reach his top of the rotation potential. In 2009 he held his own in AA despite being only 20 yrs old. If he can develop more consistency and command he should reach the majors in the near future and possibly as soon as 2011. Withrow is not without doubters, with some scouting reports I read saying that they don't believe he'll develop enough command to last 6 innings a game. Command and some injury concerns could force him into the bullpen as a power relief pitcher, and leave The Carbombs and fantasy owners disappointed.

ETA: Late 2011
Best Case: Matt Garza
Worst Case: Injuries force him to become a RP.
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Draft Recap 2010 Round 2

By Brendan Hart

13) Miguel Sano (Monsters) – When most NKFBL league members went through the 2010 Handbook for the first time they came to Miguel Sano and read that he “has thunder in his hands and forearms and could hit 30 homers annually down the line”. After reading that most league members needed to do laundry. Sano was the top international signee from this past offseason and was highly coveted despite being only 16 years old. He is currently seen as an infielder (probably 3B) but will most likely have to move to the outfield because of his size. The Monsters were more than happy to scoop him up with the first pick in the second round and will easily be able to afford the four to five year wait for Sano to be MLB ready. Despite the long wait (and potential bust factor) the Monsters may have just drafted a future superstar who could turn into the next great Dominican player.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Miguel Tejada
Worst Case: Andy Marte
Pick Analysis: Steal
Better Pick: None


14) Casey Kelly (Pigeons) – Casey Kelly was a lock to be drafted by Billy or Sully. When Billy passed on Kelly in the first round it seemed likely that Sully would grab him in the second round. Even as a second round pick I think Kelly is slightly overrated. I agree that his stats are impressive, albeit in Low A baseball. It’s unknown if Kelly’s success will continue when he moves into the upper minors and eventually into the majors because of his lack of overpowering velocity. BA says that Kelly will gain velocity as his body develops – but that is far from a certain thing. For a team such as the Pigeons Kelly was a risk not taking, especially considering their needs on offense. I think Bochering, Norris, Myers or even Josh Bell would have been better selections.

ETA: Late 2010
Best Case: Kevin Brown
Worst Case: Brian Rose
Pick Analysis: Slight reach
Better Pick: Bochering, Norris


15) Christian Friedrich (Anchormen) – The Anchormen’s draft strategy with pitchers resembles their owners poker style: conservative at all times. Arrieta, Hellickson, Castro and now Friedrich are all pitchers that are likely to surface as major league regulars, albeit without star power. Friedrich’s K/9 statistics are among the best in the minors and seem to suggest that his future will be determined by whether or not he can develop better command. If he develops command he could turn into a number 2/3 starter for the Rockies. If he does not he could turn into a power lefty out of the bullpen

ETA: 2011
Best Case: Ted Lilly
Worst Case: Matt Thornton
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


16) Bobby Bochering (Pandas) – At 6’4” 200lbs Bobby Bochering has the body that suggests he could hit for a lot of power in the future. The Pandas’s drafted him with the 16th pick hoping that he can develop that power and turn into the long term replacement for Casey McGehee. While Bochering was the second 3rd basemen selected in the 2010 draft he has the ability and upside to be the more valuable fantasy player. At only 19 years old it is likely that he will not see the MLB before 2014 or 2015.

ETA: 2015
Best Case: Chipper Jones
Worst Case: Alex Gordon
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


17) Derek Norris (Pandas) – Catchers that hit home run’s are hard to find. Catchers that hit home runs and take 90 walks are almost impossible to find. Norris did just that last season and looks to be the future catcher for the Nationals and the Pandas. Since he’s only 21 and new to catching it’s likely that he’ll spend 2/3 more years in the minors. The Pandas got a steal with Norris at the 17th pick and likely got lucky that there were a couple surprise selections in the first round.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Brian McCann
Worst Case: Ramon Hernandez
Pick Analysis: Steal
Better Pick: None


18) Zack Wheeler (Ballers) – In a pitching strong draft Eamonn wisely drafted another high upside starter Zach Wheeler to go along with his first round selection of Tyler Matzek. Both high school pitchers are advanced and BA made a point of noting that Wheeler is ahead of top Giants pitching prospect Madison Bumgarner when he was drafted. Seeing as the Giants have been very successful recently developing pitchers such as Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner, it would not be a surprise to see Wheeler in the bigs in under 3 years.

ETA: Mid 2013
Best Case: Madison Bumgarner (2008 Version – Fastball in the 90’s)
Worst Case: Madison Bumgarner (2009 Version – Fastball in the 80’s)
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


19) Jenrry Mejia (Dogs) – Jenrry Mejia’s fastball has been the talk of Met’s spring training and created some buzz that he may break camp with the team. If he does end up making the trip up north to New York in the coming weeks it will almost surely be as a reliever. Tom Duggan and the Dogs decided that Mejia’s talent was too much to overlook and took him with the 19th pick. While Mejia is talented enough to justify this pick he could also become the second middle reliever that the Dogs will be keeping at seasons end (Feliz).

ETA: Mid 2010
Best Case: Pedro Martinez
Worst Case: Franklin Morales
Pick Analysis: Slight reach
Better Pick: Domingo Santana, Alex Colome


20) Domingo Santana (Pandas) – The Pandas followed up their Juan Duran pick in last years draft with another toolsy teenager Domingo Santana. The 17 year old is a beast at 6’5” 200 lbs, while running the 60 yard dash in 6.7 seconds. In an organization that has lots of toolsy outfielders such as Dominic Brown and Jiwan James, Santana may own the highest upside. In his first pro season last year he hit slightly under 300 with 6 hr’s in only 118 ab’s. The Panda faithful will hope that the early success continues and that Domingo travels with Juan Duran to Polska sometime before 2017.

ETA: Late 2016
Best Case: Jermaine Dye
Worst Case: Join’s the countless teenage busts before him.
Pick Analysis: Slight reach
Better Pick: None


21) Matt Moore (Walnuts) – There’s a reason the Walnuts took only 27 seconds to scoop up Moore with the 21st pick. In three pro seasons he’s had a K/9 over 12, a BAA under 200 and stands a few less walks away from becoming one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. The Rays have no need to rush Moore considering their prospects close to the majors and starters already in the rotation. The Walnuts just hope he’ll one day be in the rotation next to Verlander, Weaver, Anderson and Martin Perez.

ETA: Late 2012
Best Case: Jon Lester
Worst Case: Doesn’t find command and turns into a RP.
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


22) Will Myers (Walnuts) – The Walnuts were hoping to use the 22nd pick on Miguel Sano, but saw him long gone by the time they were drafting. Will Myers was viewed by the organization as the best hitter remaining, and as someone who could hit for both average and power. In his short 18 game debut at the end of last season he hit over 400 with 4 hr’s. With Miguel Montero dealt in the offseason the Walnuts won’t mind if Myers sticks at catcher and can provide some insurance incase Geovany Soto never regains his rookie form.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Jorge Posasa
Worst Case: Kurt Suzuki
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


23) Kyle Gibson (Brew Crew) – Going into the draft I though Gibson would be more of a third round selection due to some red flags I read about. In his final college season he injured his pitching forearm and scouts wondered whether the injury might lead to further elbow trouble. I also read that scouts didn’t like how he seemed to pitched off of his offspeed pitches instead of his fastball. The first red flag made my worry about a reoccurring injury and the second red flag made me think of Clay Bucholtz’s time with the Red Sox to date. Nevertheless BA seems to think that he has ace potential and it’s hard to argue with any move made by the Brew Crew. Just by writing this review Gibson will probably turn into the next Josh Johnson.

ETA: 2013
Best Case: Clay Bucholtz
Worst Case: Justin Duchscherer
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


24) Alexander Colome (Pandas) – Alex Colome is yet another high upside Rays pitcher with the chance to develop into an ace. A fastball regularly clocked at 95 mph and an 11-5 curveball with late bite helped Colome earn a #6 overall ranking in the Tampa Bay top 10 done by BA. He instantly becomes in the highest upside starter in the Pandas minor league system and will develop under Pandas pitching coach Randy Johnson.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: AJ Burnett
Worst Case: Doesn’t transalate from A to AA and turns into a RP
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Draft Recap 2010 Round 1

Over the next few week’s we’ll analyze the 2010 prospect draft and describe how each pick will fit in with their new team. We’ll discuss each players ETA, best/worst case scenario and whether we feel they were a reach, steal or expected pick.

Round 1

By Brendan Hart

1) Stephen Strasburg (Rampage) – Not even Lester could mess up the first pick in the 2010 draft. Early last season it became clear that Strasburg was the best player available and someone who would be as close to MLB ready as possible out of college. The Monsters essentially held his rights, as it was clear that they had little to no chance of competing with the scraps..err..roster left by Conor Hartnett. The Rampage felt so strongly about Strasberg’s potential that they traded away Adrian Gonzalez for a package including the number 1 pick.

While Strasburg was just sent to the minors he should be up soon and be slotted next to Lincecum, Lackey, Price, Santana and two lights out closers. If he lives up to some of his potential he should help immediately in era, whip and K’s per 9. Wins could be tough to come by with a poor Nationals team supporting him but it’s not unreasonable to think he could win 8-10 games this season. Going into 2011 and beyond it safe to say the Rampage could have one of the better pitching staffs in the NKFBL in Strasburg and Chapman develop.

ETA: Early 2010
Best Case: Roy Halladay
Worst Case: Mark Prior
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


2) Dustin Ackley (Pigeons) – Ackley was the best hitter available in the draft and lands on the hitting needy Pigeons. While some of the other teams may have selected Aroldis Chapman the Pigeons made the right pick since they already have top starters CC, Johan and Tommy Hanson. Ackley should be able to help Sully’s team with avg, runs, steals, and obp. It’s up for debate whether he will develop more than 12-15 hr power, but regardless should be able to impact a lot of categories. His value could continue to rise if he stays at 2B, where he will start off in the minors. If he sticks there Sully could look to deal Chase Utley for one of the packages continually offered by The Carbombs and Pandas.

ETA: Late 2010
Best Case: Johnny Damon (with a higher BA)
Worst Case: Brian Giles
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


3) Aroldis Chapman (Rampage) – The Cuban Rampage drafted their first Cuban in Chapman with the third pick. Despite getting Strasberg and having solid pitching they realized that he was the best player available. Armed with a 100mph fastball and rare raw talent, Chapman could turn into an ace over time. While he’s been dominant at times during the spring he still is only 22 yrs old and will likely need some time in the minors to work on his command and adapt to the United States. If he does well in the minors he could be promoted early and easily pass the 50 innings to lose his prospect status. If this happens, look for Lester to try and deal some pitching for some hitting help, as they currently own one of the weaker offensive squads in the NKFBL.

ETA: Mid 2010
Best Case: Francisco Liriano (Pre Injury)
Worst Case: Dontrelle Willis
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


4) Starlin Castro (Rampage) – The first of multiple surprise picks in the first round was the Rampages third first round pick Starlin Castro. The Rampage bought into all the hype and the high rankings of Castro to make him their SS of the future. While Castro is an excellent contact hitter at only 20 yrs old, it’s no sure thing that he ever develops the power that has been projected for him (Only 3 Hr’s last season). People also debate how much speed Castro has and whether he will be able to steal 20+ bases in the majors (Stole 22 bases in AA but was caught 11 times). Theses issues combined with the fact that he will start the season at AAA and could potentially lose his prospect status, and you have a big risk. With the reduction in keepers next season the Rampage may have committed three spots with their first three prospect picks. The Rampage gambled on Castro instead of selecting a safer pick such as Michael Taylor.

ETA: Late 2010
Best Case: Edgar Renteria
Worst Case: Yunel Escobar
Pick Analysis: Reach
Better Pick: Michael Taylor, Lonnie Chisenhall


5) Lonnie Chisenhall (Anchormen) – Many league members expected Billy to overdraft Casey Kelly with the 5th pick. Instead Billy smartly chose to grab one of the better offensive players in the draft, and someone who should be the Indians and Anchormen’s 3B of the future. While Michael Taylor may have delivered a bigger impact, he would have joined a team with seven outfielders. Chisenhall delivered a solid season in A ball in 2009 and showed the power needed from a corner infielder. While he struggled in his promotion to AA he is only 21 and looks to have a bright future ahead. While he probably will spend most of this season in the minors, it would not be surprising to see Chisenhall surface in the MLB/NKFBL in 2011, where he could take over for current Anchormen 3B Chris Davis.

ETA: Early/Mid 2011
Best Case: Scott Rolen
Worst Case: Andy Marte
Pick Analysis: Not expected, but good value.
Better Pick: None


6) Tyler Matzek (Ballers) – For the second consecutive year the Ballers picked up a potential ace in the first round of the prospect draft. Tyler Matzek is an advanced high school starter with a plus fastball who could be joining last years first rounder Brian Matsuz in Eamers rotation in the near future. Baseball America wrote in the Bible “Scouts thought he was the best high school lefthander to come out of Southern California since Cole Hamels in 2002, and Matzek has better stuff”. While Matzek has major potential there are two hurdles he’ll have to overcome: his home ballpark will be Coor’s and the Rockies do not have a good history of developing pitching. I think it’s likely that he overcomes these issues and pairs with Billingsley atop the Ballers rotation.

ETA: Late 2011
Best Case: Erik Bedard (Pre Injury)
Worst Case: Ryan Anderson
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


7) Michael Taylor (Monsters) – The Monsters sat back and watched Michael Taylor fall into their lap with the 7th pick. Going into the draft I thought he was a lock to go forth overall, but Lester’s surprise pick blew up that prediction. As a result the Monsters can now look forward to an outfield/utility including Hamilton, Taylor, Stanton and Rasmus. Taylor should help the Monsters in avg, hrs, rbis and probably even add a few steals. Look for Taylor to enter the MLB and the Monsters lineup sometime during the upcoming season.

ETA: Mid 2010
Best Case: Nelson Cruz (with an better BA)
Worst Case: Corey Hart
Pick Analysis: Steal
Better Pick: None


8) Adeinis Hechavarria (Rampage) – Unless Lester knows something the rest of us don’t this is a terrible use of a first round pick. Many teams in the NKFBL take unproven unknown players they found buried in the back of a top 30 in the Bible. However those picks are almost entirely made in the 3rd or 4th round. I can’t write with confidence that Adeinis is going to be a huge bust because I know nothing about him. I can write with confidence that if there was an international player to draft in this spot it was Miguel Sano. Sano’s hitting ability and power potential is pretty well documented and he has the ability to develop into a big time player. Considering the lack of offensive talent currently on the Rampage’s roster you would have thought that Sano, Tate or even Derek Norris (is Iannetta really the long term solution?) would have been drafted with the 8th pick.

ETA: 2012-2013 (based on the fact that he didn’t want to be blocked by Jeter in NY)
Best Case: Alfonso Soriano (only comparison I found online, highly unlikely)
Worst Case: Esmailyn Gonzalez
Pick Analysis: Epic reach
Better Pick: Miguel Sano, Donovan Tate, Derek Norris


9) Jaff Decker (Pandas) – Per the Pandas Twitter “The real reason we didn't draft Donovan Tate in this year's draft was Signability. We got Decker at a below slot value.” Truth be told I listened to Pandas owner John Radzinski profess his love for Jaff for over two months before the draft. All this love was for good reason since Decker clearly has the bat and hitting ability to be an impact fantasy player once he makes the majors. His high walk total and power should make up for his Prince Fielder like fatigue. At only 20 he will probably spend the entire year in class A and is probably two years away from making the Padres roster.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Nick Johnson (with more power)
Worst Case: Nick Johnson (with less power)
Pick Analysis: Slight reach
Better Pick: Possibly Donovan Tate


10) Jacob Turner (Anchormen) – Billy turned in his second gift wrapped first round pick from Lester into Jacob Turner, who without a doubt is an Ace in the making. With a fastball that sits in the 90s and can hit close to 100, Turner shouldn’t take long to join Verlander and Porcello in the Tigers rotation. Since the Tigers like to be aggressive with there pitching prospects its fair to assume that despite being young, Turner could be up in the bigs by the end of 2011. Turner and Chisenhall are impressive additions for Billy/the Anchormen, and the team deserves credit for making the trade with Lester and not sticking with the 3rd pick Chapman.

ETA: Late 2011
Best Case: Adam Wainwright
Worst Case: Andrew Miller
Pick Analysis: Expected/Steal
Better Pick: None


11) Donovan Tate (Brew Crew) – The Brad added another toolsy outfielder to his team with Donovan Tate, who missed all of the past season due to injury. While Tate is projected to have both power and speed there are major questions about whether he will hit for a good average. He is likely 2.5 to 3 years away from making any impact in the MLB. This is fine for a Brew Crew team that has no need or roster space for any raw players. Despite they’re not being a need, Tate is a good investment for the Brew Crew because of the type of player that Tate could turn into. If he reaches anywhere close to his potential he will likely be a hot trade commodity in the NKFBL.

ETA: Late 2013
Best Case: Andruw Jones (Braves days)
Worst Case: Mike Cameron
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


12) Shelby Miller (Bombers) – Any players in the Bible with comparisons to Nolan Ryan and Josh Beckett are assured of being drafted often. Needless to say Shelby Miller didn’t make it into the second round and was a player highly coveted by Bombers owner Erik Uustal (Ranked number 5 overall on his big board). Miller joins an NKFBL team with a lot of front line starters to learn from such as Felix, Ubaldo, Kershaw, Lester and Harden. At only 19 years old it is likely that the Cardinals will move Shelby slowly through their system and he could be three years away from making an impact. With expectations already in place his future MLB/NKFBL debut will surly be highly anticipated.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Josh Beckett
Worst Case: Kerry Wood
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Day 25- 2009 Round 5

1The CarbombsSoto, Nefali 3B CIN48 sec(6 min 14 sec)
2The CarbombsWestmoreland, Ryan OF BOS22 sec(6 min 36 sec)
3The CarbombsMain, Michael SP TEX2 min 6 sec(8 min 42 sec)
4Attack Pigeons of ConnecticutLewis, Scott SP CLE2 min 4 sec(5 min 6 sec)
5Wickford WalnutsCastro, Jason C HOU1 min 39 sec(10 min 57 sec)
6The CarbombsMorban, Julio OF SEA1 min 51 sec(10 min 33 sec)
7RIC AnchormenDavis, Ike 1B NYM38 sec(12 min 18 sec)
8Rhode Island QuahogsHood, Destin OF WAS1 min 46 sec(19 min 12 sec)
9The CarbombsPortillo, Adys SP SD2 min 43 sec(13 min 16 sec)
10The Brew CrewKa'aihue, Kila DH KC13 sec(14 min 45 sec)
11The CarbombsJohnson, Cody OF ATL40 sec(13 min 56 sec)
12Pølskå Pandas™Marte, Jefry 3B NYM2 min 10 sec(9 min 18 sec)


By Brendan Hart

Best Pick- Ryan Westmorland- Knapp snagged Westmorland with the second pick in the fifth round and proceeded to trade him to Uustal in a midseason Fuentes trade. He may end up regretting that trade in the future if Westmorland is able to live up to the lofty expectations set by the Red Sox, BA and fantasy owners. Some people believe he has the ability to turn into a Grady Sizemore potential if he can overcome the vast amount of injuries he’s had in his short career. While he was limited last season he still put up good numbers and showed a good all around game. The more recent heath problem (brain cancer), could sideline Westmorland for an indefinite period of time. It is unknown (and probably hard to predict) when or if he’ll return to baseball sometime this season.

Worst Pick- Scott Lewis- Since the worst drafter in league history Jeff "toothpaste white" Lester didn't have a pick in this round I had to go with Scott Lewis. It was clear when Lewis was drafted that he wasn’t a high upside pitcher and would never join Johan and CC in the Pigeons rotation. He preceded to get injured and now has been taken off the Cleveland Indians 40 man roster. He’ll likely surface in the MLB again as a reliever and probably rot in Sully’s minor league system until his eligibility runs out.

Still Could Make it- A majority of the fifth round flyers could make the MLB. High upside guys like Destin Hood, Adys Portillo and Jeffrey Marte are so young that they will likely not see that majors for three or four years at best. Other players such as Jason Castro and Ike Davis are likely to see the majors this season and may not make a big enough impact to crack fantasy lineups. We should know much more about this group and the rest of the 2009 draft picks after this upcoming season.

% in MLB- 0 out of 12= the big donut.

Day 24- 2009 Round 4

1Wickford WalnutsFrazier, Todd SS CIN1 min 34 sec
2The Smoke MonstersDixon, Rashun SP OAK1 min 20 sec
3The Smoke MonstersCollier, Zach OF PHI24 sec
4The CarbombsRodriguez, Yorman OF CIN1 min 1 sec
5Rhode Island QuahogsSandoval, Pablo 1B SF1 min 17 sec
6The Brew CrewSaunders, Michael 3B SEA1 min 11 sec
7Rhody RampagePoreda, Aaron SP SD2 min 2 sec
8Rhode Island QuahogsRodriguez, Rafael OF SF1 min 24 sec
9Ballyhooly Ballers of CorkCarter, Chris C. 1B OAK1 min 8 sec
10Wickford WalnutsPerez, Martin SP TEX1 min 44 sec
11Rhode Island QuahogsSeaton, Ross SP HOU57 sec
12The CarbombsMorales, Angel OF MIN1 min 46 sec




By Brendan Hart

Best Pick- Pablo Sandoval- It’s hard to sit here one year later and realize that the Kung Fu Panda was able to slip into the fourth round of the prospect draft. Hat’s off to Mr. Henderson for going after Sandoval and making sure that he was a part of the Hogs (Pat even tried to draft Sandoval in the MLB draft I believe). In 2009 Sandoval showed he can flat out hit and that he could turn into one of the premier players in all of baseball. Despite his Prince Fielder looking appearance and low walk total, he delivered a .943 OPS and showed that the 345 AVG he had in 2008 was no fluke. At 24 he definitely has the time and ability to get better and looks like he’ll be a Hog’s keeper for the foreseeable future.

Worst Pick- None- It’s far too early to label any of the picks of the fourth round a “bad pick”. Most of the prospects are still teenagers and are far away from making any sort of impact. If I had to take a guess at who will own this title next year I would guess Walnut prospect Aaron Poreda. The Rampage draft pick who was involved in a meaningless midseason Coco Crisp deal (epic), had high expectations and a nasty fastball when he was drafted by the White Sox. Chicago used him mostly out of the bullpen and shipped him off to the Padres in a Jake Peavy trade. Poreda failed to adapt once the trade was made and has absolutely bombed this spring. He’ll head back to AAA and look to right the shape to start 2010.

Still Could Make it- Martin Perez- Sure I could have chosen Chris Carter and talked about the potential splash he’ll make entering the MLB this season, and how he could help the Ballers make a playoff push. Why talk about Carter tho when I can talk about the star prospect of my ststem? Exactly. Perez broke out last season and showed why those BA writers tossed out some Johan Santana comps. While he struggled when he hit AA he was flat out dominant in A ball as an 18 year old. While the graduation of Feliz and other top pitching prospects coming this season, look for Perez to sit atop the rankings as one of the top 2-3 pitching prospects in baseball. He could join Verlander, Anderson, and Weaver in the Walnut rotation as soon as next season.

% in MLB- 2 out of 12= 16%