Draft Recap 2010 Round 1

Over the next few week’s we’ll analyze the 2010 prospect draft and describe how each pick will fit in with their new team. We’ll discuss each players ETA, best/worst case scenario and whether we feel they were a reach, steal or expected pick.

Round 1

By Brendan Hart

1) Stephen Strasburg (Rampage) – Not even Lester could mess up the first pick in the 2010 draft. Early last season it became clear that Strasburg was the best player available and someone who would be as close to MLB ready as possible out of college. The Monsters essentially held his rights, as it was clear that they had little to no chance of competing with the scraps..err..roster left by Conor Hartnett. The Rampage felt so strongly about Strasberg’s potential that they traded away Adrian Gonzalez for a package including the number 1 pick.

While Strasburg was just sent to the minors he should be up soon and be slotted next to Lincecum, Lackey, Price, Santana and two lights out closers. If he lives up to some of his potential he should help immediately in era, whip and K’s per 9. Wins could be tough to come by with a poor Nationals team supporting him but it’s not unreasonable to think he could win 8-10 games this season. Going into 2011 and beyond it safe to say the Rampage could have one of the better pitching staffs in the NKFBL in Strasburg and Chapman develop.

ETA: Early 2010
Best Case: Roy Halladay
Worst Case: Mark Prior
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


2) Dustin Ackley (Pigeons) – Ackley was the best hitter available in the draft and lands on the hitting needy Pigeons. While some of the other teams may have selected Aroldis Chapman the Pigeons made the right pick since they already have top starters CC, Johan and Tommy Hanson. Ackley should be able to help Sully’s team with avg, runs, steals, and obp. It’s up for debate whether he will develop more than 12-15 hr power, but regardless should be able to impact a lot of categories. His value could continue to rise if he stays at 2B, where he will start off in the minors. If he sticks there Sully could look to deal Chase Utley for one of the packages continually offered by The Carbombs and Pandas.

ETA: Late 2010
Best Case: Johnny Damon (with a higher BA)
Worst Case: Brian Giles
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


3) Aroldis Chapman (Rampage) – The Cuban Rampage drafted their first Cuban in Chapman with the third pick. Despite getting Strasberg and having solid pitching they realized that he was the best player available. Armed with a 100mph fastball and rare raw talent, Chapman could turn into an ace over time. While he’s been dominant at times during the spring he still is only 22 yrs old and will likely need some time in the minors to work on his command and adapt to the United States. If he does well in the minors he could be promoted early and easily pass the 50 innings to lose his prospect status. If this happens, look for Lester to try and deal some pitching for some hitting help, as they currently own one of the weaker offensive squads in the NKFBL.

ETA: Mid 2010
Best Case: Francisco Liriano (Pre Injury)
Worst Case: Dontrelle Willis
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


4) Starlin Castro (Rampage) – The first of multiple surprise picks in the first round was the Rampages third first round pick Starlin Castro. The Rampage bought into all the hype and the high rankings of Castro to make him their SS of the future. While Castro is an excellent contact hitter at only 20 yrs old, it’s no sure thing that he ever develops the power that has been projected for him (Only 3 Hr’s last season). People also debate how much speed Castro has and whether he will be able to steal 20+ bases in the majors (Stole 22 bases in AA but was caught 11 times). Theses issues combined with the fact that he will start the season at AAA and could potentially lose his prospect status, and you have a big risk. With the reduction in keepers next season the Rampage may have committed three spots with their first three prospect picks. The Rampage gambled on Castro instead of selecting a safer pick such as Michael Taylor.

ETA: Late 2010
Best Case: Edgar Renteria
Worst Case: Yunel Escobar
Pick Analysis: Reach
Better Pick: Michael Taylor, Lonnie Chisenhall


5) Lonnie Chisenhall (Anchormen) – Many league members expected Billy to overdraft Casey Kelly with the 5th pick. Instead Billy smartly chose to grab one of the better offensive players in the draft, and someone who should be the Indians and Anchormen’s 3B of the future. While Michael Taylor may have delivered a bigger impact, he would have joined a team with seven outfielders. Chisenhall delivered a solid season in A ball in 2009 and showed the power needed from a corner infielder. While he struggled in his promotion to AA he is only 21 and looks to have a bright future ahead. While he probably will spend most of this season in the minors, it would not be surprising to see Chisenhall surface in the MLB/NKFBL in 2011, where he could take over for current Anchormen 3B Chris Davis.

ETA: Early/Mid 2011
Best Case: Scott Rolen
Worst Case: Andy Marte
Pick Analysis: Not expected, but good value.
Better Pick: None


6) Tyler Matzek (Ballers) – For the second consecutive year the Ballers picked up a potential ace in the first round of the prospect draft. Tyler Matzek is an advanced high school starter with a plus fastball who could be joining last years first rounder Brian Matsuz in Eamers rotation in the near future. Baseball America wrote in the Bible “Scouts thought he was the best high school lefthander to come out of Southern California since Cole Hamels in 2002, and Matzek has better stuff”. While Matzek has major potential there are two hurdles he’ll have to overcome: his home ballpark will be Coor’s and the Rockies do not have a good history of developing pitching. I think it’s likely that he overcomes these issues and pairs with Billingsley atop the Ballers rotation.

ETA: Late 2011
Best Case: Erik Bedard (Pre Injury)
Worst Case: Ryan Anderson
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


7) Michael Taylor (Monsters) – The Monsters sat back and watched Michael Taylor fall into their lap with the 7th pick. Going into the draft I thought he was a lock to go forth overall, but Lester’s surprise pick blew up that prediction. As a result the Monsters can now look forward to an outfield/utility including Hamilton, Taylor, Stanton and Rasmus. Taylor should help the Monsters in avg, hrs, rbis and probably even add a few steals. Look for Taylor to enter the MLB and the Monsters lineup sometime during the upcoming season.

ETA: Mid 2010
Best Case: Nelson Cruz (with an better BA)
Worst Case: Corey Hart
Pick Analysis: Steal
Better Pick: None


8) Adeinis Hechavarria (Rampage) – Unless Lester knows something the rest of us don’t this is a terrible use of a first round pick. Many teams in the NKFBL take unproven unknown players they found buried in the back of a top 30 in the Bible. However those picks are almost entirely made in the 3rd or 4th round. I can’t write with confidence that Adeinis is going to be a huge bust because I know nothing about him. I can write with confidence that if there was an international player to draft in this spot it was Miguel Sano. Sano’s hitting ability and power potential is pretty well documented and he has the ability to develop into a big time player. Considering the lack of offensive talent currently on the Rampage’s roster you would have thought that Sano, Tate or even Derek Norris (is Iannetta really the long term solution?) would have been drafted with the 8th pick.

ETA: 2012-2013 (based on the fact that he didn’t want to be blocked by Jeter in NY)
Best Case: Alfonso Soriano (only comparison I found online, highly unlikely)
Worst Case: Esmailyn Gonzalez
Pick Analysis: Epic reach
Better Pick: Miguel Sano, Donovan Tate, Derek Norris


9) Jaff Decker (Pandas) – Per the Pandas Twitter “The real reason we didn't draft Donovan Tate in this year's draft was Signability. We got Decker at a below slot value.” Truth be told I listened to Pandas owner John Radzinski profess his love for Jaff for over two months before the draft. All this love was for good reason since Decker clearly has the bat and hitting ability to be an impact fantasy player once he makes the majors. His high walk total and power should make up for his Prince Fielder like fatigue. At only 20 he will probably spend the entire year in class A and is probably two years away from making the Padres roster.

ETA: 2012
Best Case: Nick Johnson (with more power)
Worst Case: Nick Johnson (with less power)
Pick Analysis: Slight reach
Better Pick: Possibly Donovan Tate


10) Jacob Turner (Anchormen) – Billy turned in his second gift wrapped first round pick from Lester into Jacob Turner, who without a doubt is an Ace in the making. With a fastball that sits in the 90s and can hit close to 100, Turner shouldn’t take long to join Verlander and Porcello in the Tigers rotation. Since the Tigers like to be aggressive with there pitching prospects its fair to assume that despite being young, Turner could be up in the bigs by the end of 2011. Turner and Chisenhall are impressive additions for Billy/the Anchormen, and the team deserves credit for making the trade with Lester and not sticking with the 3rd pick Chapman.

ETA: Late 2011
Best Case: Adam Wainwright
Worst Case: Andrew Miller
Pick Analysis: Expected/Steal
Better Pick: None


11) Donovan Tate (Brew Crew) – The Brad added another toolsy outfielder to his team with Donovan Tate, who missed all of the past season due to injury. While Tate is projected to have both power and speed there are major questions about whether he will hit for a good average. He is likely 2.5 to 3 years away from making any impact in the MLB. This is fine for a Brew Crew team that has no need or roster space for any raw players. Despite they’re not being a need, Tate is a good investment for the Brew Crew because of the type of player that Tate could turn into. If he reaches anywhere close to his potential he will likely be a hot trade commodity in the NKFBL.

ETA: Late 2013
Best Case: Andruw Jones (Braves days)
Worst Case: Mike Cameron
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None


12) Shelby Miller (Bombers) – Any players in the Bible with comparisons to Nolan Ryan and Josh Beckett are assured of being drafted often. Needless to say Shelby Miller didn’t make it into the second round and was a player highly coveted by Bombers owner Erik Uustal (Ranked number 5 overall on his big board). Miller joins an NKFBL team with a lot of front line starters to learn from such as Felix, Ubaldo, Kershaw, Lester and Harden. At only 19 years old it is likely that the Cardinals will move Shelby slowly through their system and he could be three years away from making an impact. With expectations already in place his future MLB/NKFBL debut will surly be highly anticipated.

ETA: 2014
Best Case: Josh Beckett
Worst Case: Kerry Wood
Pick Analysis: Expected
Better Pick: None